Do you have a link to Elon's FSD claim?
He definitely uses ambiguity to his benefit (eg "soon", "by fall/winter/spring/summer" (in which year?)), but I haven't heard anything about Tesla being L5 by the end of 2021.
He definitely uses ambiguity to his benefit (eg "soon", "by fall/winter/spring/summer" (in which year?)), but I haven't heard anything about Tesla being L5 by the end of 2021.
I went ahead and Googled one for you from 2020:
Tesla will be able to make its vehicles completely autonomous by the end of this year, founder Elon Musk has said.
It was already "very close" to achieving the basic requirements of this "level-five" autonomy, which requires no driver input, he said.
- July 2020
I remain confident that we will have the basic functionality for level five autonomy complete this year.
Basic functionality for level five isn't level five.
Who are you trying to fool?
Who are you trying to fool?
I'm surprised you say this totally seriously. For me this means that level 5 will be this year, and then there might be extra new cool features, which are not necessary.
Basic functionality for level 5 sounds like both necessary and sufficient to me
That's still not sufficient, because it needs to do that in all circumstances (vehicles, people, animals, stuff, weather, etc), but even if it can handle all the circumstances (also basic functionality), if it can't at least all roads, then it's not level five.
Right now, it's level two, and it's IMO going to be level two for a while. People can ask about level five, but I take any statements about Tesla's current autopilot and/or beta as statements about the level two system.
People can assume that those statements are about some future level five system, but I don't think that's an accurate assumption unless someone from Tesla says autopilot and/or the beta is now level three, four, etc...
If basic functionality does not need to be sufficient, then even the tiniest necessary thing is basic functionality? Like installing a camera on each new car? In that case, Tesla already has basic functionality for level 5 in terms of both hardware and software.
Tesla does have basic hardware needed for level two functionality, maybe more. They could have basic software functionality needed for level two or more with the beta, but someone would need some kind of audit to confirm that.
Google is universally accessible to everyone. Please don't be that guy who corners himself into a blind spot.
Musk claimed coast to coast self-driving trip by end of 2017.
https://www.theverge.com/2016/10/19/13341100/tesla-self-driv...
edit - The closest is about the basic functionality for it being ready by the end of the year (see above).
Musk: So -- and this is -- basically I'm highly confident the car will drive itself for the reliability in excess of a human this year. [...]
<later>
Director of Investor Relations: [...] The next question is, why are you confident Tesla will achieve Level 5 autonomy in 2021? [...]
Musk: I guess, I'm confident based on my understanding of the technical roadmap and the progress that we're making between each beta iteration.
He did refer to the current FSD beta, which is a level two system, and expressed confidence in the technical roadmap and progress they are making between each beta iteration. Then he talked about the level of reliability they would need, capabilities of the system, and challenges they have.
I guess, I'm confident based on my understanding of the technical roadmap and the progress that we're making between each beta iteration. Yes. As I'm saying, it's not remarkable at all for the car to completely drive you from one location to another through a series of complex intersections. It's now about just improving the corner case reliability and getting it to 99.9999% reliable with respect to an accident.
Basically, we need to get it to better than human bio factor at least 100% or 200%. And the business happening rapidly because we've got so much training data with all the cars in the field. And the software is improving dramatically. The -- we also write the software for labeling.
And I'll say it's quite challenging. We're moving everything toward video labeling. So all video labeling for video inference and so there are still a few of new met that need to be upgraded to video training inference. And really, as we transition to each net to video, the performances become exceptional.
So this is like a hot thing. The video -- the labeling software that we work for, video labeling, making that better has a huge effect on the efficiency of labeling. And then, of course, the Holy Grail is auto labeling. So we're -- we put a lot of work into having the labeling tool to be more efficient when we used, as well as enabling auto labeling where we can.Dojo is a training supercomputer.
We believe it will be -- we think it may be the best neural net training computer in the world by possibly an order of magnitude. So it is a whole thing in and of itself. And this is offer potentially as a service. So some of the others need neural net training, we're not trying to keep it to ourselves.
So I think there could be a whole line of business in and of itself. And then, of course, for training vast amounts video data and getting the reliability from 100% to 200% better than average human to 2,000% better than average human. So that will be very helpful in that regard.
https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2021/01/27/te...
The question is "why are you confident about X", and the answer is "I am confident because we're making progress in these ways with Y".
I think the assumption that it's a specifically lie else really highlights where these ideas are coming from.
An investor asks “Why are you confident in L5 self-driving before the end of 2021?” and Elon goes on to explain why he is confident that Tesla will achieve L5 self-driving by the end of 2021.
Musk said he's 'confident' reaching l5 autonomy by end of 2021 in the Q4 earnings call, which is on youtube.
The only specific statement I've read from him is that the basic functionality for level five will be available this year.
What's interesting to me is that people seem to attribute what news articles synthesize about his statements as statements made by him.
Musk promised the coast to coast drive in 2017:
https://www.theverge.com/2016/10/19/13341100/tesla-self-driv...
Then admitted he couldn't do it in 2017:
https://www.autonews.com/article/20180208/MOBILITY/180209770...
This isn't the media delivering a dishonest commentary. These are his words.
But yeah, we can have both.
Those were his words in that situation, and he was called out for it. In this situation, the media is delivering dishonest commentary, and trying to call him out for their commentary.
To me, FSD is ... FSD ... what's FSD if it isn't level 5?
Sorry, to Elon fans (and I appreciate Tesla), but it's nonsense and people are fools to put up with it, let alone pay $10k or whatever it is for the "opportunity" to have it later.
As for the specifics, it's what's described on the Tesla website.