> flat revenue for 3 years
???
2018 - $21.5B
2019 - $24.5B
2020 - $31.5B
2021 (annualized) - probably $35-$40 B
2018 - $21.5B
2019 - $24.5B
2020 - $31.5B
2021 (annualized) - probably $35-$40 B
And its hard to see how 2022 will not continue this, 2022 will bring two huge new factories to full scale, Berlin and Austin. It will also see launch of Cybertruck and Semi at least.
The list of companies that can grow at that rate at that size is very small.
Their automotive margin (excluding credits) has improved significantly over this period. Improving unit margins with improving volume is a powerful combination and Tesla, they are only just really establishing true global scale and global production. Their profitability has a good outlook as well.
Also, revenue doesn't capture the whole story. Share price indicates something about longer run growth potential and margin development.
Also the vast majority of those profits are not car sales but regulatory credits and Bitcoin sales, they are barely in profit on selling cars, which makes the valuation even more absurdly optimistic. IMO Tesla will do well and get to perhaps 30% of the global car market and some of energy, but that still doesn’t justify their valuation today, let alone any future growth.
Did you even see the earnings report yesterday? I don't care about non-cash expenses (Stock-based compensation of 614M).
They made a profit of $1.05 billion out of which ~102M was from the bitcoin sale and 518M was from reg credits. In what world is ~$430 million in a single quarter "barely anything"?
Share price is a whole other discussion, of course.
Tesla isn't some start up that just IPO'd, it's one of the world's largest companies. Very few companies manage to double revenue in 3 years.
So you might next claim that revenue only doubled but stock price 10x'd over that time period. Well the reason is pretty simple, an investor who buys Tesla before its revenue grows will enjoy a better return on their investment compared to an investor who waits until afterwards to invest.
When investing, you want to look to the future potential of the company, not its past. If every 3 years Tesla manages to double their revenue, then after 6 years Tesla's revenue will match what you think is a reflection of today's stock price. At that point it will be too late to capitalize off of Tesla's stock price.
So either Tesla fails to continue its growth, maybe people end up losing interest in electric vehicles and other projects Tesla is working on, or maybe its competitors manage to produce a better electric vehicle and end up with superior battery technology... or Tesla will continue to dominate this sector, will continue innovating in this area, and in so doing will capture new segments of the electric vehicle economy that very few people are able to appreciate today.
The stock market is risky business, no one has a crystal ball, but the market is indicating that electric vehicles are going to be the future, and Tesla is the dominant player in this emerging market.
Based on what?
Employees? 70K is not even on the chart. (Top 10? 500K+)
Revenue? $31.5B is also not even on the chart. (Top 50? $130B+)
Profit? $800M, again, not even on the chart. (Top 10? $24B).
Market cap? This is the only area where Tesla broaches the top ten, and it has nothing to do with being a "large" company.
Also maybe you personally wouldn't be surprised if BRK didn't double revenue over three years, but people who are in the financial space would be absolutely shocked if it did so, considering the last time BRK managed to double it's revenue over a three year period was from 1988 to 1991.