> Tesla 'very close' to level 5 autonomous driving technology - Musk says [0]
> Level 5 Self Driving Cars this year (2020) [1]
Now, it is admitted that it is Level 2. So its not 'Full Self-Driving' as promised.
When will the Elon fanatics stop listening to his bullsh*t?
[0] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-autonomous-idUSKBN2...
[1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnkoetsier/2020/07/09/elon-mu...
Sorry, I've been over Tesla for a while now. Huge respect for the engineers, but their hypeman isn't doing them any favours at this stage in their lifecycle.
Massive respect to the company for altering and accelerating the auto markets move to EV's but I wouldn't buy a Tesla just on brand alone.
The Ioniq 5 is currently the top of my list and if I was in the market for a model S or X, I'd instead be looking at Lucid Air. I'm glad realistic alternatives are finally getting there.
Not interested in FSD at all. I won't be using my car as a Robotaxi and I actually enjoy driving. Lane assist is enough for me.
Anyway, n=1
Ioniq looks good but doesn't seem very roomy in the back, so kids+dog+luggage won't fit.
Interestingly in some podcast Franz von Holzhausen (the guy responsible for Teslas design) mentioned that he was tired of always designing concept cars and never releasing them before he went to work at Tesla.
Probably because 90% of a concept car is one-off (and that’s for the rare cases where it actually is a whole car, and not a shell), and re-tooling to create it (not to mention addding all the usual safety features) would make the mass production car cost hundreds of thousands.
Because it builds media attention to the potential related production development; there’s usually particular features that are envisioned being for future production.
> As a consumer seeing them at this point is just aggravating
Consumers aren’t really the target audience, their exposure is more of a side-effect.
VW.ID Buzz looks pretty bad@ss, to be honest. But if we're going down that route, I'd be sending up some prayers for a VW.ID Beetle. I can dream.
No wonder those in the market are confused as to what these cars are actually capable of.
0: last video on https://www.volkswagen-vans.co.uk/en/electric-vans/id-buzz.h...
Does lane assist work at night when its raining or snowing ? I dont think I have ever needed lane assist during daytime however I find driving at night in snow or rain to be very stressful.
Like "has this lane been plowed" ? And "has the plow actually followed the lane or gone in the middle of the lanes" .
I wonder what self driving cars will make of situations like this?
Some which supposedly Tesla had the best of.
Until people ran tests on it and realized it's much worse then some much less hi-tech solutions. (And it wasn't just one group which ran similar tests and came to the same result).
So I'm always very careful when Tesla (or other Car manufacturers) promise that "their tech works the best"/"very good" until I have seen some reasonable independent tests.
Sure, it doesn't work in heavy snow, but I also wouldn't trust it in heavy snow either. I appreciate that my car doesn't provide false confidence in dangerous conditions.
My other vehicle lacks any of the modern radar features, and the one time I did the same drive with that car was... surprisingly more stressful.
I live in a traffic jam prone area, and being able to not worry about stop and go traffic takes all the stress out of driving.
(Kia understates the capabilities of their ADAS a lot, probably so people don't abuse it, but it will pretty much drive itself as long as your hands rest on the wheel.)
The idea is that when paving a road, mix a whole lot of passive RFID tags into the paving material. By a whole lot, I mean that every square meter of road should have a dozen or two tags. The tag IDs do not have to recorded in advance, and there is no need for any systematic ID assignment. Just order a bazillion tags with random IDs and dump 'em into the road.
Then afterwards you send vehicles over the road that have readers than can gather data to make a database of what tags are in what lanes of what roads, and where. The where part just needs to be the distance along the road from some reference point.
That data gathering can be done by paying commercial vehicles to install and use the readers.
The idea was to then make the data available to the general public. You could then make car navigation systems (remember, this was pre-GPS) that could read the tags in the road, consult the database, and figure out that they are on road X and they are Y meters from the reference point of that road.
You could also continue to pay commercial vehicles to gather and report data. By comparing that data with previous data, you might be able to detect damage to the road. For example, if a pothole develops, that should lead to a loss of some tags, which should show up in the data.
You could generalize your idea to a more normal case of 'mix balls of {METAL/MATERIAL} into pavement and equip cars with sensors'
Clever.
These automations are extremely useful to relieve long and easy drives. Not to handle difficult conditions better than a concentrated driver.
Same. We used to have 2 cars, we ditched one early on in the pandemic and haven't missed it. Now we just have a small Toyota Aygo which barely fits a stroller for the kid.
I'm trying to postpone the need to buy a car as long as I can to have more electric options.
We just bought an electric cargo bike with a kids seat and that has been great too so far.
It has replaced 95% of car trips, even giant grocery runs. The bay is lucky to have 3+ bike boulevards running parallel to major roads.
Citymapper has been an awesome app to find more bike friendly routes that Google would never surface
It's easy to forget that building a concept car or small quantities is dramatically easier than mass producing something that's affordable to the masses.
I own a model 3 and I certainly wasn't dumb enough to pay the 10K for the FSD. That being said I'm not a fan of the other electric cars because the charging infrastructure is garbage. Whenever I stop at a non Tesla charging station I have a very high probability of having to try two or three different plugs before I can get remotely decent current. Electrify America is the network VW was forced to fund after the diesel emission scandal and it's pretty bad. ChargePoint is the other one and they're not very good either.
Definitely don't think the build quality on Tesla's is what it should be and I look forward to the factory in Texas coming out to solve that because Fremont is not going to cut it.
That being said these other cars might be better for the price but good luck charging them.
I assume it’s because their CEO/CTO was the chief engineer for the Tesla Model S. So, not only has he done it before, he presumably has some lessons learned on how to do things better the second time around. Agreed, that’s no guarantee though.
How does a factory being in Texas change build quality in a Tesla run environment? (Legitimate question, I know very little about this)
Not that I expect the Austin factory to solve all their fit and finish issues, but I am delaying my Model Y purchase till it comes online.
As a result, meaningful changes or innovations seem to be limited to the design/opening of new factories.
Change the name in that statement from Lucid to Tesla and go back in time. People gave Tesla a chance at the beginning. And that's why you're driving a model 3 today.
I'm not in the market for a Lucid or a Tesla, but I think the Air is far more beautiful than the S, and with decent specs, and I would definitely choose the Air.
But that's an early adopter thing, I guess. Luckily there are enough early adopters around so you don't have to worry about the mass-producing issue.
Competitors are catching up, but slowly. I'd say Tesla still has 3-5 years of market dominance where I live due to superchargers.
Yes I'm pulling numbers out of my ass here, so please don't ask for sources
I disagree with that, their equity is doing quite nicely and without the hype I doubt it would've been possible to this extent.
They've got a long ways to go on the manufacturing side of things and at best look like they're 2-4 years behind where Tesla is today.
Disclosure: Don't hold stock in either or anything in EV space.
The software/FSD capabilities aren't good reasons to get one. Further, I think their current price tag of 10k is absolutely ridiculous.
That said, if you are in a nation with good EV charging stations, plan on just using the car as a commuter, or if the buildout of current charging stations are good enough then I don't see a reason to pick a tesla over anything else on the market.
I say all this as a current owner of a 2018 model 3 with FSD.
When someone else will sell us a car.
I literally just ordered a model Y, with the $10k FSD package. Would I have bought something else if I could get it? Maybe. But this is here, and I can get it. Look, the product as it exists today is real and has value. Maybe you're not exited by it, but I am. And I can buy it. And I just did.
I'm old enough to remember when "make something people want" wasn't considered "bullshit" on this site.
Exactly what am I not getting? This really seems like a strawman kind of thing. You're inventing a product and a market that don't correspond to real cars or consumers, and then arguing about what those consumers "really" wanted or what the car was "supposed" to do, and not what they actually want or what the hardware actually does.
I don't see how that's helpful to anyone other than an investor short on TSLA. The way to prove that this is a garbage product, again, is to make a better one.
If you know that what you're paying for is L2 then all good, enjoy your new car :)
The problem people have is the misleading lies, like L5 being right in the corner, I'm pretty sure many fell for it.
Full Self-Driving Capability
* Navigate on Autopilot
* Auto Lane Change
* Autopark
* Summon
* Full Self-Driving Computer
* Traffic Light and Stop Sign Control
Coming later this year
* Autosteer on city streets
The currently enabled features require active driver supervision and
do not make the vehicle autonomous. The activation and use of these
features are dependent on achieving reliability far in excess of human
drivers as demonstrated by billions of miles of experience, as well as
regulatory approval, which may take longer in some jurisdictions. As
these self-driving features evolve, your car will be continuously
upgraded through over-the-air software updates.> The FSD package as it exists gets you autonomy on highways already
did you say that before you had the chance to read that text?
Maybe... you just want something different? Why are you so angry about a product you aren't buying.
As for assuming good faith, giving all Elon Musk's actions and statements, it is hard to assume it at this point.
People don't need to "learn" how to operate semi-autonomous vehicles that have insufficient safety features. Tesla's autonomy does not train drivers to be attentive. In accident situations, a driver who's been lulled into complacency has no chance to respond appropriately.
Every other company took a more conservative approach to self-driving. Only Tesla barrels forward, head in the sand, ignoring all standards, like being able to exit the vehicle in an accident without needing to find the latch behind the speaker cover. A random passenger would not know this. Tesla breaks things that were not broken and claims they are innovative solutions, meanwhile wasting public investment money.
> The FSD package as it exists gets you autonomy on highways already.
This is incorrect. It's a level 2 driver-assist feature no matter what road or surface you're driving on. This means keeping both hands on the wheel and paying full attention to driving 100% of the time.
Also level 1 is driver assistance. Level 2 would be “partial automation”, see http://cyberlaw.stanford.edu/blog/2013/12/sae-levels-driving...
When you think about it, level 5 is the only level that should be described as autonomous. For all we know, level 5 could require strong AI to achieve. My guess is that the gap between levels 4 and 5 is much wider than most of us are assuming.
All because you apparently can't handle the fact that Tesla's $10k FSD package actually provides value to consumers?
I mean, be real: I almost certainly know more about this vehicle's capabilities than you do, and I assure you that I am more expert on my own purchasing logic.
I am using the word autonomous as defined by the SAE levels, which are described as “levels of autonomy”. You are yak shaving and contorting the words to your liking.
Also tesla is level 3, not level 2. It also doesn’t require hands on wheel 100% of the time, although they say it requires this
Another poster above says they were smart for not purchasing FSD,
Tesla does see a market in the Americas, so they actually sell cars here. That gives them a big leg up, even among people who don't like them.
We have, and love, our Chevrolet Bolt. In addition to the Bolt, Kia, Hyundai, Volkswagen, Porsche, Audi, Jaguar, Polestar (Volvo), and more all have electric vehicles, all available in the US.
Charge $10k for pixie dust. Even for SV, this is an unbelievable abuse of consumers.
It's more of a "the other options suck" kind of thing with Tesla, no?
> Would I have bought something else if I could get it? Maybe.
Though it will require some serious material much better than e.g. the picture in this article: https://www.dxc.technology/analytics/insights/146175-racing_...
The current problem is that Tesla is marketing Level 2 capability as if it is Level 4 or 5.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-06-26/everyt...
He's popular because people buy into his bullshit 100% instead of having a measured approach to a guy whose reeeeally into self promotion.
It is unquestionable at this point that a very large number of rules have been broken.
Just on the securities fraud: Musk has committed securities fraud multiple times and has been let off the hook (if anyone else did the 420 thing, they would have been barred for life for being a public company CEO...it was appalling). The same rules apply to everyone, whether you are a self-aggrandizing billionaire or not.
Multiple consumer law violations. Multiple instances of securities fraud. None of this is legal.
Also, it is possible to raise money without lying. Musk didn't raise money on the basis of these lies. He raised money initially with no claims about FSD. And the money he has subsequently got came from China.
April 2019 - Tesla Autonomy Investor Day - Musk makes various claims of your Tesla turning into a profit center via "robotaxis", million robotaxis on road in 2020. "In two years Tesla will be making cars with no steering wheels or pedals." https://ir.teslamotors.com/events/event-details/tesla-autono...
May 2019 - Tesla Looks to Raise as Much as $2.3 Billion Through a Bond and Stock Sale https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-looks-to-raise-as-much-as...
"Tesla Autonomy Investor Day"...
He’s lying on purpose, because he knows he immune from any consequences. And he’s right - those lies propelled him to be one of the richest people in the world.
When Elon stops making such statements? And that will only happen when he faces the consequences from regulators for doling out unrealistic promises and claims.
It means that can mostly drive itself but the driver still has to be alert and ready to take over at a moments notice. Which is the worst off all worlds, and I believe all manufacturers have said they will skip level 3 in their offerings.
"Autonomous driving is right around the corner" my ass.
I’m no Elon fan, but Tesla FSD is still a generation ahead of anything else available on the market. GM (SuperCruise) and Ford (BlueCruise) make good attempts, but it’s not near FSD quality. Plenty of YouTube videos (@EVDave) out there that compare them against even Tesla basic AutoPilot. Super/BlueCruise are fine for pre-mapped straight line highways, but for the other 90% of the roads out there, Tesla AutoPilot can traverse most of them.
(https://spectrum.ieee.org/cars-that-think/transportation/sel...)
Also, your question refers to Waymo in the past tense, but not sure if you meant it that way. Waymo still is building and shipping and driving, AFAIK.
Quoting from the gp: "in our defined operational conditions."
The operational conditions (weather, location) are probably way too limited
E.g. sudden dust storm on the highway in Germany where dust and/or sand storms on itself are a rarity (also this is something humans are bad at coping with themself, as given example caused a accident with multiple dead people).
Less unusual but still realistic example: Sudden extreme heavy rain (I had that once, the car I was driving in was old needed new windows and I wasn't able to see anything at all. The only reason I didn't cause a crash is because I knew the road I was driving on very very well). Or sudden fog.
Humans just tend to be better at handling such potential fatal unexpected situations, e.g. because they have a good memory of the road and contextual thinking in ways which are hard to explicitly train a robot in.
So they kinda need to find ways to still handle things well in such situations and "just stopping" isn't an option as this might endanger people around you (and yourself).
Tesla FSD isn't Level 4/5 because they're skipping level 4, at least they're trying to. Honestly the level system is pretty stupid. The gap between 4 and 5 can be tiny or it can be huge, depending entirely on what you decide to constrain your vehicle to.
I went looking hard for Waymo-in-extremis kind of stuff, and it just doesn't seem to be there. I think a lot of the argument here is being confounded by the vapor problem.
Full disclosure: I pulled the trigger a few weeks ago and am awaiting delivery of a Model Y with FSD. Two levels in the hand are worth four in the bush.
> Honestly the level system is pretty stupid
Indeed, the SAE Autonomy classification scheme is the OSI Network Layer paradigm of our age. People were sure TCP/IP was going to fail for not being OSI-compliant.
[1] Edit: this is a great example from urban SF: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2_zTZjCCoxo&t=0s The car manages narrow lanes, double parked cars, a ton of pedestrians, hilltop crossings with poor visibility, scooters in the lane, unprotected left turns, etc... It looks great in this particular video. And I can't find anything with a Waymo car dealing with similar environments, just big flat suburbs.
Doesn't the two links refer to the same statement by Musk?