Nassim Taleb says Bitcoin is an open Ponzi scheme and a failed currency
businessinsider.com
businessinsider.com
Only way is to ride a hype train. I had BTC from 2012, found it in 2019 after the crash so just waited for the hype to build up again. Sold it at 56k and will probably never buy again
Back in the day, I wanted to support bitcoin so I paid 1 Bitcoin, equivalent of $150 at the time, on a single night at a hotel. I learned my lesson, at today’s price, that one night stay cost me $60,000.
And this is why people don’t use it as a currency.
Just this week there was some news that Iran was going to use BTC to work around some US sanctions. I am sure many countries will follow suit in the future, as the only way to really stop Bitcoin is if all countries would ban it's use together and that ain't gonna happen.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_versus_nominal_value_(eco...
Concretely, there are only two utilities to crypto-currency: as a speculative currency investment hoping the value of a given crypto-currency increases disproportionately to a seed currency and as a means of anonymizing currency transactions. Until crypto is used for something other than day trading or illicit purchases most people simply don't care and won't ever care as its effectively worthless in a real sense.
Ponzi one is baseless (in this piece).
Volatility one is incomplete. Clearly people use volatile currencies. Usually people avoid ones that are in downward spiral. If he (or even majority) can not wrap their heads around the question of how to transact under current conditions, it does not mean nobody can.
It's harder/unlikely, but its not "no way to".
Bitcoin needed more than ever.
* [1] https://medium.com/opacity/bitcoin-1537e616a074
* [2] https://news.bitcoin.com/black-swan-author-pulls-a-180-nassi...
One might quibble that the phrase "Ponzi scheme" suggests conscious intent to deceive. That's a hard thing to prove, and largely economically immaterial. Putting questions of intent aside, every speculative bubble is a Ponzi scheme: buyers plan to sell for more money, and eventually can't.
This also holds for all those shares that don't pay dividends: Alphabet, Amazon, etc.
The whole thing that makes Bitcoin special is that you can't just ramp up the supply of it. The supply of Bitcoin is even better known than that of gold. It's also easier to store and transport. So Bitcoin is a better store of value than gold.
And bitcoin won't be a better store of value until we can be sure the demand for it will last a very long time.
The demand of Bitcoin has only ever increased in the long term. It has already gone further up after three huge temporary bubbles. You really feel comfortable to bet against this long term trend?
> The demand of Bitcoin has only ever increased in the long term. It has already gone further up after three huge temporary bubbles. You really feel comfortable to bet against this long term trend?
I'm talking about multiple lifetimes to truly be long term, not fives of years.
Bitcoin won't be a good store of value until it calms down. The demand can't go up forever, and even if it's guaranteed to stay very very very high, what if you buy in when it's very very very very high?
Yeah like art and first edition books, sure.
> Bitcoin won't be a good store of value until it calms down.
It is at a trillion dollar market cap already. Only one single 10x away from gold. The long term regression on the Bitcoin price says that it will flip gold in less than 5 years.
> what if you buy in when it's very very very very high?
You hold. Or hodl as the memers say. Bitcoin is a black hole and it will swallow everything else, because it is better than everything else on every metric. Yes it even uses less power than fiat or gold.
Until you scale it up.
nothing stopping demand from collapsing in a panic
Bitcoin is a black hole that swallows every other asset, because it is a better store of value than everything else.
There have already been three separate huge "panics" where the Bitcoin price has gone down 90%. But these don't even register any more if you look at the long term price chart. Zoom out. The Bitcoin price is going up and to the right like nothing else. It just keeps on going.
(the other way around)
A BTC is worth nothing unless you can sell it for something (such as USD). It is the later "investors" who buy BTC for sky high prices that allow earlier "investors" and miners to cash out.
I am telling you whatever answer to your own question you will come up with in regards to Bitcoin, the same reasoning will be applicable to US dollar, therefore it should discredit US dollar in the same way, which basically makes the whole point (whatever that is) absurd.
https://john-tromp.medium.com/a-case-for-using-soft-total-su...
regardless, the asset inherits peer to peer bearer transferability which overlaps with a currency. and all extensions of the asset inherit this too.
don't get distracted by these irrelevant terms, you would fail any standardized test by focusing on the irrelevant details of the question
It can be.
Can also be the purest form of cynicism, too: the enduring faith that there is a sufficient perennial reserve of tech optimism that the absence of broad practical application won’t prevent their from being a market of activists willing to purchase at higher and higher prices.
I suspect a lot is between those extremes, though.
I'd compare it more though to original gold and silver as currency in the middle ages and earlier....
It's a new technology just like original currency was centuries ago.
I think it has the potential to end poverty if tied to a single identity and account with built in taxes and a cap (prevent billionaires) and ads/rewards for internet content producers (built in patreon and crowd funding)...
But bitcoin and even ethereum aren't this...
Eth has more potential and possibilities, Cardano is even better, but I think anything that might help poverty and equality and post scarcity is 20 years off... Might not even technically use blockchain but some other mechanism for decentralization of currency.
Currency must represent enough wealth to be able to flow (current -> currency) but it's more akin to red blood cells in a body of organs, it serves the organs via its transit. We call this "liquid" when we have wealth represented by cash. I believe the correct answer here is that currency is a (fixed) ratio of actual wealth being generated by a nation-state or planet and therefore the amount of hay grown, the amount of rice harvested, the amount of chips manufactured, the amount of creative output that is captured is measurable, and there is a fixed ratio of that amount that results in "currency."
This might be easier to understand with a medieval analogy to a castle, we cannot sell our only castle, but we can use the agricultural surplus to trade. The castle might appear to have some sort of convertible wealth, but not all currency must represent that, because we are not frequently trading castles, but we are frequently trading currency for bread and for sustenance and commodity-goods.
I think one would benefit from reading Foucault's "The Order of Things" which explains that trade can only happen when there is a surplus beyond what is locally necessary, and this surplus is what gives rise to currency.A helpful concept might be "the velocity of money". The crucial insight is that all the money spent in an economy in one year can be expressed in two ways:
Take the available quantity of money M, and assume that each dollar is used in to buy something V times per year. Then M x V is the total amount spent in a year. That must equal the gross national income, in nominal terms (ie in $ terms), namely P x Q (price level times quantity of goods produced).
Thus: MV = PQ.
(As a side note, I personally would definitely not look to Foucault for economic insight.)
Also, if not Foucault, who would you recommend for "economic insight?" Foucault's chapters on "Exchange" in "The Order of Things" are quite insightful, and if you read them and have any particular criticisms or disagreements I would much enjoy reading them.
That’s mostly true, especially near full[0] employment.
[0] not 100%, and how much less that is depends on other structural factors. If, say, uncontrolled social violence has people cowering in their homes instead of working the government printing money and offering to spend it on goods isn’t going to draw people out of their bunkers, its just going to drive up prices in the part of the monet economy still working.
My definition was very naive, I realize it now. So cryptocurrency can not call itself currency, correct?
People can trade crypto and NFT all they want, or they can exchange crypto or NFT's for pizza or the other way around. However, calling it a currency and making it convertible to fiat money creates an illusion that crypto is another currency just a bit too volatile (and a lot of people believe that it will pass as cryptos will eventually stabilize, which is likely wrong).
I think we should just stop calling it currency and thus put an end to a lot of confusion and unhealthy speculation.
Economists tend to believe a little inflation is helpful[1], and to disagree on how much. If the money supply increased by exactly as much as total wealth (which is different than the total output in a given year), the average price level would be constant. Such a scenario has never lasted very long anywhere. (Inflation and deflation both happen, but precisely "zero flation" is extremely hard to achieve, even if you wanted it for some reason.)
There's also a giant rabbit whole around how to define the average price level. It's an extremely hard problem -- what people produce, and what they need, varies from year to year, and durable goods depreciate by variable amounts, and much of our wealth is in intangible things like the recipes for vaccines with real but uncertain future payouts, and we can only hope to survey a subsample of the data. There's no obvious best approach.
[1] https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/moderate-inflati...
Failed currency? Yes, that was the envisioned utility and it failed to deliver that for many reasons.
Ponzi scheme? it is obvious, current holders make money when someone else buy it at a higher price.
Anyone says otherwise, need to counter those two facts or else we could assume he/she hyping it for profit or following blinded ideology/hype.
It also fintech porn, that many on forums like HN masturbate on mentally while day-dreaming about the prospect of anarchist decentralized self-governing societies..
Truth often ugly, I'm ready to be downvoted ^^.
With Bitcoin, the transaction ledger is public and immutable, making it impossible to conduct a Ponzi scheme on the Bitcoin network itself. If everything is verifiable it becomes much harder to run scams.
The "Ponzi scheme" is enabled on bitcoin not by hiding the bank account, but manipulation of the value of the currency itself. In both cases, the n holder is benefiting from the n+1 holder by convincing them to pay more for what the sell as a profitable investment, and each transaction value should be greater than the one before it for it to work. So it is a form of a Ponzi scheme, not the traditional one you described. Sure, I have a transparent ledger, but what exactly do those numbers account for? I tell you, it is a great, wonderful investment, easy way to make money, it is the future, just pay me x amount more than what I paid.
The issue here is that bitcoin is not appreciating due to advancements, growth or the extra value it providers to society, in fact as it stands it has negative impact. No, it is appreciating only due to social hype in the intersubjective social reality. It is a scam.
I written this comment before, but I’ve basically come to believe the argument described in the following is true: https://www.matthuang.com/bitcoin_for_the_open_minded_skepti...
Bitcoin isn’t a cash competitor, it’s a gold competitor - and it’s a pretty good one.
Part of something like gold is the shared social belief in it as a store of value. Bitcoin has this and there’s enough time and infrastructure behind it at this point that I’d bet it’s likely to keep it.
That plus its scarcity guarantee and disconnect from the federal monetary policy of any one country or bank makes me bullish on its future in the long term.
I’m also bullish on ethereum, but for different reasons.
In other words, fiat doesn’t really encourage saving.
This is not true for stores of value like gold and BTC
The differentiation is about monetary policy, BTC's policy is in code via incentives and PoW. It's decentralized and not controlled by a government. The currency is scarce and the maximum amount is predetermined. It's deflationary.
I'm not an 'inflation is bad' person. I'm not a hardcore anti-government crypto-anarchist. I think government monetary policy has a place and the QE policy after 2008 clearly worked based on the rapid recovery and loan repayment. I think when you have growth you need more currency to support that growth and newly created wealth. Some inflation in monetary policy is desirable and creates incentives you want (investment) vs. hoarding cash.
I am not an economics expert and people are often way too confident in this kind of stuff when they shouldn't be.
The reason BTC is more like gold than like fiat currency is because of the things in that article, but a quick summary:
- It's hard to actually trade with for goods (nobody is bringing little gold flakes into the 7/11 for a chocolate bar).
- It's scarce and takes a lot of energy to 'mine'. The supply of gold on earth is limited by nature. The supply of BTC is limited by code and math.
- People use it as a place to store value beyond its inherent value. Gold is shiny and has some utility as a metal, but its market value is mostly entirely unrelated to that.
- In some ways BTC is better than gold as a value store. It's easier to store and easier to transport.
I like ethereum a lot as well[0], but the complexity of the system which has led to hacks in the past[1] has me a bit wary.
[0] I've a very tiny bit of skin in the game, and the tech is very cool
[1] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/55m-hack-almost-brought-ether...
You can move BTC to Zcash and then have shielded transactions.
The worst kind of outcome is what the CCP is building - a digital on chain currency to completely surveil their population's every financial transaction. There are some interesting things a government run digital currency can do though - expiring money stimulus (money that must be spent in a short time or somehow otherwise constrained). The ability to very quickly give money to people securely. Though obviously even with some of these interesting things, the CCP's currency is very bad for the privacy and freedom of their people - China is basically already in that dystopia.
How does Bitcoin scarcity compare with the availability of other crypto products ?
Are these analogous?
Gold > Silver > Bronze
Bitcoin > Ethereum > Doge
(Edit: formatting)
Is it all about mindshare at this point? What prevents another crypto product from sprouting up?
I think this question doesn't totally make sense, but I get what you're getting at.
BTC because of PoW and mostly first mover advantage (more mining network capacity, therefore more secure) has more shared value. A lot of the other crypto products are relatively insecure proof of stake with problematic on chain governance. The scarcity is not that there are lots of crypto products, but that there will only be a maximum number of BTC mined ever. The existence of Venezuela dollars doesn't really impact the value of USD - they're different currencies with different reasons for their value. Many others 'coins' are ERC-20 tokens on ETH and while they support their applications/create shared incentives they don't have nearly the same network size as BTC (or shared sense of value) so they're less robust. Those tokens are less like a currency and more like company stock (where the 'company' is the on chain application). There are some others on their own block chains that have interesting properties (ZCash), but the risk there is adoption.
Lots of commodities are traded, but gold has a shared store of value property above its inherent value for social reasons. I'd argue BTC has that for similar social reasons.
Ethereum is different because of its programmable smart contracts, it has a lot more potential as a protocol that applications can be built on top of (and we're seeing a lot of cool stuff here, DeFi - Uniswap, Compound, see: https://medium.com/dragonfly-research/what-explains-the-rise...). As a result I think its token has value and its more exciting than BTC, but it's a different kind of thing - BTC is simpler.
Doge is a joke - just straight speculative gambling, you might luckily make money (and it's fun to gamble), but there's no scarcity built in. It definitely has the meme aspect going for it though.
There is. Unlike fiat, Doge is disinflationary, with the yearly supply inflation rate steadily going down towards 0. It's folly to equate scarcity with fixed supply [1].
[1] https://john-tromp.medium.com/a-case-for-using-soft-total-su...
I wonder whether people will switch to Bitcoin en-mass when Asteroid mining becomes viable.
What priors are there for a "currency" such as bitcoin? Genuine interest, not sarcastic tone here btw.