Both my wife and I got the J&J shot before it was cancelled. We both had a period about 12 hours afterwards where we felt like we had a mild flu for about another 12 hours, then it was over and we’ve felt fine. Very happy with this decision.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/blood-clots-and-t...
[1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3551877/
[2] https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/10/what-succ...
As is the latest shingles vaccine trial: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6590925/
(14,759 patients who received two doses of HZ/su (n = 7,344) or placebo (n = 7,415))
So if 40,000 is "kinda untested" than this one must be complete and utter made-up then
Also, what are the odds of a 1 in 10k concern not being picked up as such in a 40k sample size? It would look like background noise if it was only one case in that particular group.
To be clear, I am very much pro continuing use of the vaccine, but it's not the case that every possible 1 in 40k or less concern has been discovered since we had one such group go through a controlled study. Since the odds of COVID causing serious problems are far, far higher than that, it is still a win, but we should of course learn as we go.
Or the people making the decision are incredibly risk averse and don't mind an extra few hundred or thousand Covid deaths to save a single person with a blood clot.
>Also, what are the odds of a 1 in 10k concern not being picked up as such in a 40k sample size? It would look like background noise if it was only one case in that particular group.
It's a specific type of blood clot that is incredibly rare and occurs more often in young women. If it had a 1 in 10k rarity it would have probably been found
See? you're inflating risk and misunderstanding consequences. How many people die, if nobody is vaccinated compared to a 1 in 100,000 risk of clotting? A lot more than 1 in 100,000 die from covid.
For the former, the side effect is blot clots with thrombocytopenia. That combo is very rare, is indicative of an autoimmune etiology, and would stand out to healthcare providers and be reported. Even if there were a few cases that were not identified or reported, it would not lead to a 2x order of magnitude difference in the reported incidence as you suggest.
If your argument is a statistical one about the study being underpowered, then show your math. Because this is definitely not a small n.
Otherwise, be careful about presuming that something in a domain unfamiliar to you is equally unclear to experts in that domain.
The problem is that the people who haven't been vaccinated yet tend to be younger and less likely to die from covid. Granted, it's still much more deadly than the vaccine, but with mitigations and some degree of herd immunity, those odds aren't as compelling as for 65-year-olds.
Contraceptive pill blood clot risk is for any type of blood clot, such as deep vein thrombosis, pulmonary embolism, etc [0].
The vaccine cerebral venous sinus thrombosis blood clot risk is something like 1 in 100k+ (as you mentioned), but during J&J FDA trials of 20k people there were 50% more blood clots of other various types in the vaccinated group [1] (15 blood clots in vaccinated group versus 10 in the placebo group, which the FDA did not consider statistically significant at the time)
You may be comparing fatal-only vaccine blood clots to non-fatal contraception blood clots, and ignoring non-fatal vaccine blood clots.
I'm not saying this to throw the vaccine under the bus, just pointing out that the comparison of the odds you presented might not be fair.
[0] https://thefemedic.com/contraception/blood-clots-thrombosis-...
[1] https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/13/health/johnson-vaccine-blood-...
At the time vaccination was paused, here were 6 known cases of CVST, 2 fatal, in 6.8 million vaccinated.
To come up with 1 in 250,000 like the OP, you need to consider only women (~3.5 million doses), count all cases (not just the fatalities), and assume more than half of the cases were not reported.
Why? That would that be a ridiculously impractical recommendation (do we even have the capacity to run millions of full panel blood tests a week?) and completely useless for detecting the problems people are worried about. TTS[1] isn’t something subtle you need a blood test for.
[1] https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-...
I just feel like more data is better, the scientist don't seem to understand the mechanism that causes this problem and why it affects a few people but not most.
Your link links the problem to low platelet count, is the vaccine affecting platelets in other people but not enough to manifest the issue? Maybe more data could help figure out why it happened to those handful of people and not others.
The J&J vaccine causes headaches and pains normally , I was down and out for a couple days, I could easily see someone with the issue thinking its normal and waiting too long to go in for help.