Sectarianism is something I've talked to acquaintences about for a few years, as I was thinking about how to make predictions on how current events were playing out, and the precdents I thought would be useful as a model to anticipate were an environment like the Troubles in Ireland, or the Years of Lead in Italy, and to a lesser extent, a re-run of the 1968-1970s U.S. era Weathermen type conflicts, but I think this emerging conflict will be even more of a melee.
It's still just skirmishes between very small physical groups that will probably move into terrorism and assasinations over the summer, and with tacit or direct approval and funding from within institutions to keep it going. Over a decade or more it reduces to a tawdry mix of organized crime and blood sport for the politically protected. And that's the optimistic version.
The factors and populations today are much larger, and the general destabiliztion of America both domesically and internationally is creating a power vaccuum, which a lot of different parties are rushing in to seize the void. This vaccuum idea predicts China's current aggression on Hong Kong and Taiwan, Russia on Ukraine (and the whole region), and Iran on Israel as a direct result of domestic instability in the U.S., because these powers know it's democratically impossible to be able to mobilze a draft for a ground war to defend your allies, so they're making their plays. While that shifts the discussion away from immediate domestic concerns, those players are absolutely involved.
The fashionably Girardian view would ask, who will be the scapegoat that lets all these groups save face and gives them an out for peace, and how grisly will its end have to be? I'm pretty sure it's going to be us thoughtful types, and maybe there will be a pogrom against rationalists, because if there is one thing everyone can agree on, people who write like this can be very annoying.