The other thing to explain is why deaths with people testing positive for covid lag people testing positive for covid by 2 weeks.

If people tested positive because of say extra tests, and it was just a general factor, then surely those deaths would increase at the same time, not 2 weeks later.

The rough covid pattern for someone who dies of severe breathing difficulties while testing positive for covid seems to be globally:

T+7 test positive for covid

T+14 into hospital

T+21 death

True, but in most countries every year hospitals get overloaded around this time of year (2018 was also very bad world wide).

I believe testing works but only to see how many people came in contact with covid-19. It is not possible to tell how many people got sick from covid because the symptoms are the same.

I am not saying people don't get sick from covid. It's clear a new virus is going around the world. But it's a fact that we are unsure how many people really get sick from covid (alone).

And about the massive surge in India: my guess is that bad air quality in the big cities is not helping.

I don’t know much about India’s situation, but hospitals are overloaded everywhere. In the Bay Area everyone that wants it can get a vaccine tomorrow and we are about to fully reopen, but icu capacity is still pretty bad and full of Covid patients.

There is nowhere in the world that was prepared for this virus and had anywhere close to enough icu beds.

You are right, this is the correct counter-argument to oppose here. However, I wonder to what extent overwhelmed hospitals reflect relatively low hospital capacity, especially in crowded cities.

Where? They were overwhelmed, but coped for around 6 weeks around April 2020 here in Spain. Everything since then has been paranoia based on PCR test results.