"Not a bubble" is exactly what people think, when there's a bubble. Otherwise there would be no bubble. People find ways to rationalize why 'this time it's different'. Sometimes it is, sometimes it's not.
In 2007-8 there was a lot of acknowledgment of the real estate bubble but there was always somebody to say well real estate isn’t really a national market so it won’t all pop at once. Ha.
Similarly everybody knew it was a bubble in 1999. That’s why you had companies rushing to ipo like lemmings off a cliff.
Personally I don’t think we are in a bubble right now and all the early bubble callers (since 2013 or so) have no credibility left.
We're all flush with cash and either terrified of inflation or riding a euphoria of asset inflation.
Why not both?
At this point, the biggest risk I see is a materials shortage that the Fed can’t fix by adding zeros in a database. Such as gas prices spiking, or food shortages, or some other critical infrastructure failing.
A drop in IPOs seems like a lagging indicator (they will drop off after the economy has cooled off), but it's not clear to me if a boom in IPOs is a leading indicator or not.
In this scenario its, "There's nowhere else to put my money", but not having a better alternative doesn't necessarily make it a good investment.
Lemmings to not commit suicide from cliffs, en masse. This is a myth that came about from a staged incident in a Disney documentary about the arctic wilderness. It's completely made up.
Was an interesting 5 or so minutes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2fHYNMvcAhc
And that's why bubbles are dangerous. When they pop, they don't just destroy the investors. They can destroy the lenders, which can damage the overall economy.