Why RIM is no Nortel

“With the right strategic execution, significant improvements in the half-baked Playbook and a big dose of luck, RIM could keep its status as a tier-one smartphone maker.”

I really take issue with this statement. First, what evidence is there that RIM’s management are capable of “the right strategic execution”? They’ve had no credible response to the iPhone in the 4 years since it was released, and to Android in the 3 years since it’s first hardware release. A new entrant came into a market that RIM essentially created, and they did nothing for 4 years. I don’t think it’s valid to use the company’s performance in the time leading up to the iPhone, when RIM had no credible competition, as a predictor of future success. The moment a credible competitor began to encroach on their market, they had no response. IMO this is a much better indicator of future performance in the face of dominant competition.

“significant improvements in the half-baked Playbook”

Again, what evidence is there that this will happen. The first Storm was, by all accounts, a massive failure. The Storm 2 was too little, too late. The current management was responsible for both. People love to talk about how Apple came back from the dead, but what they forget is that Apple was driven to the brink of death by someone other than Steve Jobs. Steve Jobs came back and brought Apple to where it is today. Had the existing management remained in place, they would have undoubtedly gone bankrupt. RIM desperately needs a change of management.

“a big dose of luck”

With a big dose of luck, the 6/49 could make me millionaire. But you can be sure I’m not making investment decisions based on those odds.

The Blackberry does have some advantages over other consumer smart phones. RIM's built a lot of infrastructure for dealing with corporate clients and security. It's probably going to be a long time before the president of the United States switches from a Blackberry.

"RIM is highly profitable with lots of cash, which should provide it with a healthy financial cushion to figure out how to ride out the storm."

I don't think this is a storm. This is more like armageddon for RIM.

They have a clunky product that people don't _want_. People want iPhones and Android devices. People ask for them by name.

No Not Nortel but from a corporate perspective a little bit like Sun maybe. Making Outdated Phones for an enterprise market that has move on, relying on an humongous installed user baser, making weird technology bets, and half-hearted attempts at emerging markets like Tablets. Sound almost like Sun with Solaris, Java, MySQL and VirtualBox. I think Microsoft will play the Role of Oracle as the last act :)

There is a surprising fact I stumbled upon when i visited Panama couple of weeks back. Blackberries rule in Latin America (at least from what i saw in Panama and heard)

Maybe Blackberry is losing out in states but is still going strong in other places.

Interesting insight into RIM and Nortel. It's rather refreshing to read this compared to the sensationalistic articles written by other tech blogs and the media who don't really understand either RIM nor Nortel.

RIM was caught off guard. They were hiring many new positions here in Ottawa (home of Nortel) and even others they own like QNX were hiring. RIM has now in fact announced they will be making layoffs instead. This doesn't help for confidence in the leadership if they didn't see this coming.

RIM seems worse off than nortel. Individuals can change mobile phones much faster than companies can change telephony infrastructures.