"Kill it before it lays eggs." but do we worry about what evolves from this if it dies?
"Kill it before it lays eggs." but do we worry about what evolves from this if it dies?
Nothing really evolves here - status quo is what stays. You continue to be tracked head to arse on everyones servers, the media keeps adding 150 trackers to every webpage and the internet moves on.
Thinking that one of the biggest profit making industries in US will just go away if you scream loud enough on HN is utterly naive and will require a better push. This approach is inherently negative and just STOPS a process - but it doesn't IMPROVE on the current state and that will require more work.
I'm not quite sure what that work would be though - it seems that current approach is "this gigantic multibillon industry must be banned and completely destroyed" which is great on a personal level, but I don't feel like it's realistic on a purely political level.
There are a half-dozen plugins one can add to Ungoogled Chromium to browse the web in (relative) safety. It's not a nation-state level undertaking: six or seven figures.
The problem really comes from apps, which are loaded to the gills with spyware.
The best outcome is to come up with a fundamentally better business model. Something that satisfies seller's desire to promote their products and customers desire to feel respected and important. Preferably cutting out a middleman and reducing costs of doing business at the same time.
A fundamentally better business model already exists: make users into customers. Google should charge users directly for the services they use. Then they wouldn't need to resort to all these underhanded tactics to try to monetize their valuable services. They could just monetize them directly.
Of course this is highly unlikely to happen now that everyone is conditioned to expect valuable services like Google's to be available for "free". But they're not free and never have been: the only question is how we pay the costs. Right now we pay those costs with our personal data and our attention, plus the time and effort we have to spend to try to push back against our personal data being monetized and our attention being incessantly competed for by advertisers. I would gladly pay in money to make those non-monetary costs go away. Perhaps I am an outlier and not many people would. But that just means we pay the costs in other ways that end up being even more costly than the direct money costs would be.
That’s why we need regulation. Under these market conditions, Google’s business model does appear to be the best for them.
In the long run it's better for everybody. But it is true that "the long run" can be pretty long.
> Do you think Google has never considered that business model?
I think Google probably considered it early on but found it easier to go the way they actually went. But "easier" is not the same as "best in the long run".
> their current business model will let them extract the most money from their products
Google doesn't have products, they have services. And of course, since their services are free to users and users are now addicted to that, they can obviously extract more money with their current business model since they have made a concerted effort to make the "users as customers" business model impossible.
However, their current business model was being built during the same time period when "Don't be evil" was still the company's motto and still apparently taken seriously by company leaders. Which means those leaders were either very disingenuous or delusional. Because addicting people to a free service and then exploiting them and their personal data in order to make the money they can't make from the users directly, as customers, is evil. And trying to keep their current business model propped up in the face of users becoming increasingly aware of the ways in which they are being exploited, is only going to force Google to be more and more evil. Sooner or later, if it doesn't change, it will kill Google as a company.
> That’s why we need regulation.
Regulation won't fix this problem. Corporations can always either buy their way around regulations (oh, another million dollar fine because we broke regulation XYZ about exploiting user data? just rounding error in our accounting) or buy enough influence to get the regulations written so they don't actually impose a burden on them (but do impose a huge burden on potential competitors, the new startups that would otherwise be finding ways to disrupt Google's current business model, since users are clearly becoming dissatisfied with it).
The only thing that will fix this problem in the long run is for users to realize that there is no such thing as a service that is (a) free and (b) valuable. We are going to pay the costs somehow. The simplest way to pay them--with money--is also, in the long run, the best.
It sounds like your reasoning is “users will eventually wake up!” which I would bet a lot of money will never happen.
Because long term, users will realize that letting their data be sold is bad for them and will stop considering it acceptable. Indeed, that is already happening. And so, as I said, Google will have to continually become more and more evil to try to prop up their business model by further obfuscating what they are doing, until it becomes unsustainable and they crash.
> It sounds like your reasoning is “users will eventually wake up!”
More like: when enough users have suffered serious harm from having their data sold (which is only a matter of time--plenty of users already have suffered harm due to Google's incessant seeking after data--see for example all the furor over the "real names" policy, which was not just Google but they took plenty of flak for it), it will stop being considered acceptable. (Users who already correctly foresee such harms, like me, are already taking whatever precautions we can to avoid providing the data in the first place. I don't use Facebook, I don't use Twitter, I don't use any other social medial "platforms", the only Google services I use are search and maps, and I never click on ads. And I would be glad to pay Google directly for search and maps, if only they would let me do so in order to avoid having what data I do provide them sold to third parties. In fact, given that "freemium" is now a recognized business model, I don't see why they aren't trying it.)
> which I would bet a lot of money will never happen.
Then I assume you are long Google?
It's happening at the fringes, in communities that are already more privacy-conscious. I haven't seen any signs of a groundswell of support for this position.
> Then I assume you are long Google?
No, I was speaking figuratively; I don't have any desire to profit off surveillance capitalism. I simply see regulation as a far more likely solution than users demanding an ethical business model with their wallets.
In the short term, I agree we're far more likely to get regulation than a significant change in user demand. I do not, however, think any regulation we get will be a "solution".
What does this have to do with Google? Yes, my ISP charges me a flat monthly fee for Internet access, and I prefer that pricing structure to being billed by the kilobyte (not that any ISP I'm aware of tries that any longer). But I'm still paying directly for the service. My ISP doesn't give me my Internet connection for free and then try to monetize it by showing me ads.
> A pay per use or monthly quota would outright discourage curiosity and add in another mental fatigue of tracking costs
Google could use the same pricing structure my ISP does: a flat monthly fee, with no limit on usage, billed to my credit card. No more mental fatigue than "do I have a working Internet connection?", which is exactly how much mental fatigue it takes for me to use Google now.
Would this be a challenge to achieve at scale? Sure. But a company that really took the motto "don't be evil" seriously would be taking on exactly this kind of challenge, precisely because it's a problem that someone is going to have to solve sooner or later, and is worth a lot to whoever solves it because it makes things better for everybody. Who better to do it than Google? But instead of hiring smart engineers to solve this problem, they're hiring smart engineers to figure out better ways to capture users' eyeballs. It's insane.
> Keeping information access gated behind wealth
In a sane society, resources like Google search would be made more widely available by the standard method taught in economics classes: price discrimination. The price they charge for their services would vary according to what the particular customer can easily afford. People in first world countries, like me, might pay $10 or $20 a month. People in the poorest countries, where Internet access itself is not guaranteed, might pay nothing, as they do now. Google has about four billion users and about $180 billion in annual revenue; that works out to an average of $45 a year per user. That seems feasible, if they are allowed to price discriminate. But of course price discrimination is considered "evil", even though it's not--it delivers more value to more people when it is allowed to happen.
> Your data being monetized by others is not an intrinsic harm.
While there are of course ways in which my data can be monetized that don't harm me, I think the actual evidence clearly shows that the ways in which our data is being monetized do carry a high risk of causing harm. "Traffic surveys" is not a good proxy for what most data harvesters are actually doing.
Any government action will be a compromise by necessity. Which is why I think EFF doesn't really push for it - even GDPR doesn't ban targeted advertising in full.
[1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/183523/online-advertisem...
With respect to eg brand advertising: even if you get past an inability to measure impact, once you break most of the ad infra, ad buyers simply aren't going to negotiate / buy with small sites. It's not worth their time or money. Small here is probably less than millions of uniques per day.
With respect to direct response advertising, you've mostly lost the ability to track a conversion. So it becomes pointless.
The advertising before extensive tracking was a different time: way way less money, way fewer ads, way less ad blindness amongst viewers, way way way fewer publishers, etc.
Will some advertising persist? Absolutely. eg the branded / source trackable referral codes that podcast advertising uses. But there will be an enormous falloff in dollars pointed at publishers.
And to be clear, I'm not a fan of 3rd party tracking. But we should be deliberate before we end the ad-supported internet.
I could see bigger sites expending a lot of energy trying to bring the tracking and inference in-house, and even federating these efforts, creating a kind of soft-paywall that requires you to "pay" by validating an email address or some other stable identity marker in exchange for temporary access to content, so they can watch what you browse and build a shared model of you that they can feed back into the ad networks. I could see the NYT continuing to manipulate and fine-tune its headlines and graphics, trying to sort its visitors into cohorts based on what appeals to them to squeeze every last cent out of a pageview.
At the same time, so much content discovery and consumption happens in the belly of the beast (Facebook, Google, Youtube) that most ads will continue to be targeted based on the considerable information those websites have about you, regardless of what browsers do or what happens to third-party tracker networks.
And banning extensive user tracking doesn’t mean “ending the ad supported internet”, that’s sensationalist to the max!
To suggest that ending tracking would mean that sites have to individually negotiate ads with individual websites isn’t true either - ad networks have and will always be a thing, regardless of the ability to track.
Second, if this will truly cause a drop in advertising spend.... then that money will be spent somewhere else, which might boost a different industry.
I don't think this would really change advertising spend, though... it would just change the type of advertising and how it is tracked/paid for.
Advertisers still want to get their ads in front of people, and the amount of content to advertising demand wouldn't change.
In fact, I think a change to content based advertising will help with content quality. With user based advertising, an advertiser doesn't care if the valuable person is viewing good content or not. Content creators just need to attract the valuable eyeballs, and can use as much click bait and useless content as possible to get them.
With content based advertising, the advertiser will spend on quality content, because that is the only metric they have to try to reach quality users.
The very idea that a user needs to be tracked from site to site and a profile built around his/her web activity is dystopian and depressing.
Having been around for the last 30 years (yes, even before the 90s!) I can say that the quality of news and the NUMBER of news sources is far greater. The amount of data online has only increased and has increasingly been sourced. Imagine the world before, when the only source of news was to interview someone in person or read the copy that particular source was using in the narrative.
Either they realize third party cookies are on a (regulated) dead end. Or they realize there is a bigger moat. Or something else that helps them.
But in any case, seeing the current Google, this is not something benefitting their users(products?) primarily. Unless some benefits accidentally aligned.
So, pushing back towards the broken status quo may be the right thing, if you know, or believe, how Google is going to benefit from the new FLoC.
I cannot evaluate that. But Googles track record does not offer me confidence their new tech is going to help me overcome the issues I have with the status quo.
Is that really so hard to figure out? Google wants to continue running their Ad network and they've been under attack for collecting data.
FLoC seems to significantly reduce the need to data collection while still enabling their core business to continue.
I might be wierd, but this still seems like a major win to me - since I care about my data not being stored somewhere off my devices and FLoC keeps it on my terminal equipment. And it allows my Firefox to send customized or faked data.
Which industry? Online advertising? Or the whole sector with Google at the front? I think it's a mistake to assume that tracking and the massive trading in personal information that takes place now is somehow foundational to either industry. Advertising worked before that was a thing and it will continue to work after. The amount of money flowing into advertising won't be dramatically changed because advertising is necessary.
It might be that if online advertising was significantly dumber, money would be shifted from online to print/tv/whatever, but that doesn't mean it's somehow "gone".
Also, if dumber ads are the only ads you can buy, then dumber ads will cost more. Now clever ads cost money (ads with fraud prevention mechanism, conversion tracking, fantastic targeting) costs a lot money. A dumb ad shown to every visitor to a website without any targeting or followup wouldn't bring much money per visitor. But if that dumb ad was what you could do and your other option is a bus stop ad - then you might have to pay a premium for that too. The loss of the ability to track people wouldn't change the laws of supply and demand for advertising space.
We just need to continue to make it increasingly impractical and expensive to track users until it stops being considered a viable business strategy.
If you're using a non-user-hostile browser, these strategies are already heavily limited by default and are already not a concern. Every Firefox release is making significant improvements on reducing the fingerprinting footprint of the browser, and several user-hostile API features proposed by Google have been rejected by them and Safari to prevent expanded fingerprinting.
Chrome's original announcement about phasing out third-party cookies is explicit about new technologies like Privacy Sandbox (which includes FLoc) being how third-party cookies will no longer be needed:
"After initial dialogue with the web community, we are confident that with continued iteration and feedback, privacy-preserving and open-standard mechanisms like the Privacy Sandbox can sustain a healthy, ad-supported web in a way that will render third-party cookies obsolete. Once these approaches have addressed the needs of users, publishers, and advertisers, and we have developed the tools to mitigate workarounds, we plan to phase out support for third-party cookies in Chrome. Our intention is to do this within two years." -- https://blog.chromium.org/2020/01/building-more-private-web-...
(Disclosure: I work on ads at Google, speaking only for myself)
If there are people who are (a) ok with personalized ads, providing they can be done sufficiently privately and (b) do not like FLoC, then I'd love to read what they have to say!
(Still speaking only for myself.)
I doubt many people object to ad networks and real time bidding; it's just that the user's personal information shouldn't be exposed in the process. Yes, that means the only signals you'd get are the current page, and maybe high-level OS/browser/device info.
(a) ok with personalized ads, providing they can be done sufficiently privately
My opinion, which I think is fairly common around here, is that what you're describing is fundamentally impossible. Much like the incessant government demands for encryption backdoors that don't compromise security.
> what you're describing is fundamentally impossible
I guess the question is what you would consider to be sufficiently private? For example, would it be sufficient for the advertiser to be completely unable to distinguish you from a sufficiently large group of people with similar behavior?
Why shouldn't personalized ads exist?
> advertisers would make just as much money without it if it were illegal
It depends very much on the advertiser. Advertisers with broad interest or close matches to specific publication types, sure, but that's not everyone. One way to think of this would be to imagine a world in which advertisers couldn't even choose where their ad appeared -- they would make less money then, without the ability to target contextually, right? There are many valuable transactions that only happen because the right information is given to the right person, and the less well-targeted ads are the more of those you lose.
The story is even worse for publishers. There are major kinds of publishing with negligible commercial tie-in. Historically, the expense of producing a newspaper or magazine meant that you were never holding a single article, and it could be treated essentially as one unit for advertising purposes. But now it is very common for articles to be shared in isolation, which means this cross-subsidy disappears.
The FLoC proposal (and others) are happening now because of the coming cookiepocalypse.
(Disclosure: I work on ads at Google, speaking only for myself)
It's simple: We force Google to stop tracking us, or we stop using Google products.
[1] https://github.com/WICG/privacy-preserving-ads/blob/main/Par...
[2] https://webkit.org/blog/8943/privacy-preserving-ad-click-att...
Apple's solution doesn't look like it provides user interests or demographics, does it?
There's a lot of cooperation here, and similar goals; I'm not sure why you think Microsoft and Google can't find an API they both like?
If only Firefox was removing cookies, that would be a problem, because Chrome could just ignore them. But with Safari on board as well, and with the entire iOS market at stake for sites that try to ignore the policy...
If Chrome doesn't remove third-party cookies, they will be the only browser anywhere not to do so. Chrome's original stance might have been conditional on finding a replacement, but I'm not sure they still have a choice at this point. I don't think Google is going to hand that selling point to Apple, and you're seeing yourself in these comments that a lot of the people following this issue didn't accept Chrome's original promise as conditional.
And maybe Chrome is confident enough in their market position that they're willing to take that hit and they think it won't matter. Maybe they're even right. From my perspective, breaking Chrome's dominance on the web is a necessary thing that needs to happen eventually for the health of the web, so every time that Chrome makes their browser worse in a highly public way, that's a win.
Remember that Firefox and Safari are already blocking the majority of third-party cookies online, and those browsers still work today, the web hasn't broken for them. So every year that Chrome spends delaying that deprecation is another year where people like me can point out that they're lagging behind literally the entire market on privacy.
nit: Safari was ahead of Firefox here, with ITP 1.0 blocking most third-party cookies by default in 2017.
And the other minority browsers are also on board now. Edge and Brave and such are also preferring privacy-friendly default configurations.
That sounds... optimistic since you needed Google to form that "we".
This seems disanalogous. FLoC requires browser cooperation. The user can simply use a browser other than Chrome.