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Many many people have already gotten out, with things ending brilliantly for them. Out of being smarter? No, through pure dumb luck. But this notion that "the average person who holds forever can't win, ergo nobody can win" doesn't make your analysis look particularly insightful.

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This isn't analysis, it's opinion. But thanks for adding to it in a meaningful way.

The people who get out in time will be a tiny fraction of those that get fucked. And to date, exponentially more people have gotten fucked than have had brilliant endings.

> And to date, exponentially more people have gotten fucked than have had brilliant endings.

If you know of a good source on this, I would be interested. I don't mean this as a challenge, I'm genuinely interested if there are many people who managed to buy at a local maximum and were forced to sell much lower. Even people who bought at $20,000 in late 2017 are now up 3x if they managed to hold.

Also, what the actual ownership distribution of Bitcoin is. Is it 90% mom-and-pop investors who gambled their life savings, or is it 90% hedge funds?

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