I think ultimately what you want is some measure of say it's practicality / viability to really make change?

I think the catch is that if you really knew that... you'd be out making an insane amount of money as you'd be able to pick and choose winners / make them work ;)

I'm reminded of the old TV series "Connections" where lots of individual innovations are cobbled together over surprisingly long periods of time to really have an impact. Mostly... it seemed like a combo of inspiration and happenstance when someone strung them together.