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It is a clear cut answer if you understand what an mRNA vaccine is.

(Not the one you responded to) I know what an mRNA vaccine is and the only clearcut answer is that "yes, obviously the long-tail risks of mRNA vaccines could outpace the long-tail risk of COVID-19". The statement is also true when you say "...COVID-19 could outpace...mRNA vaccines" as well, if that's not clear.

BTW the "long tail" of COVID-19 in children is totally unproven and the whole "long haulers" phenomenom is likely (a) a small part normal post-viral fatigue which we see with basically any virus, and (b) mostly psychosomatic/psychogenic illness.

That uncertainty is exactly the point. It's possible that the cure could be worse than the disease, but we have every reason to believe that it won't be in the long-term, and that in fact the long-term prospects from COVID-19 are probably much worse than any of the vaccines. And in the short-term the question is decided quite clearly.

So when faced with the choice of vaccine or virus, it should be a foregone conclusion.

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