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> knowing that our health care systems will be overwhelmed and a decent chunk of the population (10%?) would die

So you accept in your theory that you can die because of an overwhelmed health care that cannot save you from a trivial otherwise treatment, not Covid19

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People absolutely die when the health care system is overwhelmed. If you are having a heart attack, say, and can't get to an emergency room, your outcome will be far worse than if you could get to one. Similarly, if you've got an illness that needs treating -- I don't know, strep throat or perhaps diabetes -- and can't get the care because doctors aren't taking new patients, then yes, you might die from that, too.

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