In my experience from what I've seen there are ways to use natural keys and handle domain changes - I've seen some systems like this work quite successfully. The cost to using synthetic IDs (auto-increment, UUIDs) is a lack of reproducibility and slower importing of data especially across multiple tables/entities limiting scalability. This can be very problematic for certain classes of applications I've seen, but not most. While I agree with your comment for many classes of apps as always there is no general "silver bullet" answer - it depends on your problem space.

Some cases I've seen in previous roles where some natural key is required include reconciling third party data sources, or processing events from a topic or stream and being able to replay the event log, etc knowing that a different ID may break other third parties you don't control since they've already imported the ID. Being able to replay your data sets from scratch and get exactly the same data can have some real advantages for some apps.

Of course you need to be aware of the domain and assume that the key can change over time and have strategies to deal with that (e.g. entity version tables bound by time, data migration to add key attributes, etc etc) and the data structures/processes needs to be designed for this. There's more work in it for sure to get right - it shouldn't be the default. But in some cases I've seen it work really well which frankly surprised me at the time.