OneWeb, SpaceX satellites dodged a potential collision in orbit
theverge.com
theverge.com
For aircraft, we have TCAS RA, which tells each pilot in which direction they should move, with the knowledge that the other aircraft has been told to move in the opposite direction. It might be time to consider something like that for satellites.
Having a system that can maneuver itself in the absence of outside intervention seems like a good thing when time to respond is measured in milliseconds under certain circumstances.
This seems like collision avoidance systems in cars, easily overridden but functioning when the driver isn't paying attention.
There are few enough sats that it often still works as 'I know the guy who does operations at XY company or government and how to call them'.
Unfortunately there is not even a global index of all sats with an easy way to reach the operator. Such a list exists but the phone numbers are often simply the public number of the space agency of that country. And getting from the China Space Agency to the person that can actually move the Sat it can be tricky.
Not to mention that there are dead objects that simply can not be moved.
The state of the art is moving forward slowly, both in monitoring and avoidance.
LEO orbits have speeds around 7.8 km/s (rounding up to ~8000m/s for quick calculations) - this avoidance detection is saying that the two satellites both traveling at 8000m/s would be in the same 50m box at the same second.
A quick calculation shows that the collision avoidance is operating at least the millisecond level to predict this collision (50m/(8000m/s) ~.005 seconds.
One thing someone once mentioned to me is that space is big and things travel fast. It's hard to believe that the two satellites (most likely each <1m in diameter) came "close" to colliding, when a half second later they would be 8000 meters apart.
> came "close" to colliding, when a half second later they would be 8000 meters apart.
So is a bullet if it goes through you. Space is big but the orbits these satellites operate in aren't as big as space itself.
Why does it matter if it's hard to believe anyway, they gave a figure of 1.3%, which is pretty low anyway, and they didn't do it on the back of a napkin.
1.3% chance of collision is _not_ low at all!
Especially when you start considering the chaotic cascading effects that a collision can result in!
Exciting.
This is exactly how it should work though.
I.e. a transferring satellite gives way to an operational which gives way to a disabled. (Of course it's more involved than this, including predictable avoidance maneuvers, but that's would be the basic gist of it.)
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Regulations_for_...
[1] https://planefinder.net/about/visual-flight-rules-vfr-of-the...
[1] https://www.iridium.com/ [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_satellite_collision
Of course a collision event is chaotic. The debris is catapulted in all directions, changing the orbit. But because of how orbital mechanics works their new orbit will still pass through their old orbit, so every piece of debris will deorbit eventually (unless it impacts something else first).
Being so low reduces the risk considerably, and even with a couple thousand satellites more we are talking about mostly empty space.
Practically all space debris collisions in LEO will be hypervelocity collisions (the kinetic energy of the impact is greater than the explosive energy released by the same mass of TNT)
When collision happens in LEO, some fragments gain more velocity than the colliding satellites. They may end up in higher orbits where they can stay for a very long time.
An elliptic orbit may slow the decay though, but contrast this with the larger surface to weight ratio of smaller pieces and it should not really matter.
If the satellites collide close to 90 degree angle the horizontal velocity of some fragments can be more than 10 km/s and the orbit increases.
[0]: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/df/Ho...
The fragments can still have more energy and decay slower than the original satellite. Especially when they don't have drag generating solar panels anymore.
To turn that ellipse into a circle with a larger radius than the LEO orbit, you need an additional maneuver when it is at that larger radius.