In summary, a rocket body and an old weather satellite want to have a nice big hug. At high speed. Producing a cloud of 4 million fragments. 400 of which will bigger than 20cm.

Except that they'll probably miss (by about 10m). Probably.

Really interesting how much of this is statistical probabilities, and how much we can model about this. Right down to particle sizes.

And yet, I still have so many questions. Mostly involving the maths from https://what-if.xkcd.com/13/ and whether we could push either of them out of the way...