Why doesn't China answer back with similar sanctions?
It is honestly a bit of mystery to me. The best answer I can come up with is that the Chinese government is actually quite content with the US forcing Chinese companies to fabricate on Chinese soil.
They want to, but they can't, yet. If you listen to CCP officials the long term plan is very clear: To transform China from an export driven economy to a internal market economy so they don't need others, but currently they need them.
China currently can not consume what it produces. When I was living there I could not buy the cooking tool(blender) I wanted. I went to Europe, bought the Blender(manufactured in China) and brought it to China. There was not market in China for those and they went straight from the factory to the port.
China is not the US, most people in China are very poor. The CCP is very powerful but the country is weak in many ways.
In fact China is closing down a lot recently, expats are going out the country fast.
I suppose these companies turned out okay? The fate of locals notwithstanding. /s
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industrialization_in_the_Sovie...
China still benefits from its US relationship overall. The US does benefit too, but the US also wants to slow down their growth because it's a big threat to its power. I think everything else like human rights issues are just BS. We're partner with most of Arabian countries in the Middle East and we have active arms sell to them including Saudis which are far worst than China in terms of democracy and human rights.
PISA 2018 results
“The OECD Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) examines what students know in reading, mathematics and science, and what they can do with what they know. It provides the most comprehensive and rigorous international assessment of student learning outcomes to date. Results from PISA indicate the quality and equity of learning outcomes attained around the world, and allow educators and policy makers to learn from the policies and practices applied in other countries. This is one of six volumes that present the results of the PISA 2018 survey, the seventh round of the triennial assessment.”
https://www.oecd.org/pisa/PISA-results_ENGLISH.png
These latest results have various parts of China‡ in #1 position, the USA in #13
‡ It is true that the sub-regions looked at are Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang.
The 2021 results have been postponed until 2022 for obvious reasons.
Citation needed :)
As a Chinese native who has friends in almost all provinces across China, I just don't see Chinese is less educated than US. Same K-12 education for almost all (exceptions are rare).
Did you go to a Western university? A good one? And now work at some Western company? You can add atypical points for all of those.
Most of the Chinese people I know are fine in terms of education, around the same as any other demographic. But most of them I know from a top European university, or from highly skilled work in China. Most of China is not like that at all.
I was born in a city ranked 45th in China by population (from wikipedia). K-12 is 100%. My grandpa lives in a very small village with annual income just a few thousand dollars, K-12 is also 100%. My close cousins come from the same small village, now bank staffs and doctors.
I have friends who's family so poor that the roof got torn away by a typhoon. And I have friends whose parents are simply peasants.
My friend group is definitely biased since I graduated from one of the top universities, but they are selected by exams, so many families are actually not wealthy. In China money usually cannot help you directly on exams, people need to study hard.
Hmm, another thing I'm curious is that what gives the original post the impression that "Chinese people are uneducated". That's a rare heard haha.
Propaganda? The stats I have seen all state that Americans are the uneducated ones in this comparison.
It's not a direct comparison since the cost for education is also cheaper in China. Also since K-12 is almost free (at least meals are not included 20 years ago when I was a kid), parents just send kids there.
In recent years the trend is that even assembly factories require high school education, bachelor preferred... That's another interesting topic though.
This is exactly what I mean; the relatively advantaged Chinese are under the impression that they are the average. They're not at all. The average Chinese person lives no place they're likely to escape for the Bay Area. Most people can't even escape to a normal life in a tier 1 city within China.
I mentioned my grandpa, he lives in a small village (1~2k people?), I would say it is something like rural Fresno maybe.
If you can have supporting numbers, I can help explain.
I don't think K-12 attainment is an appropriate metric. Like I said elsewhere it's like comparing hygiene standards by saying we all have access to soap. But that's the most basic standard we can achieve.
I think if you compare the % of Chinese who go to world-class universities, it's a lot more relevant. China has maybe 2 or 3 such universities, so saying it's equal and fair because you have the gaokao or whatever doesn't make much sense. The biggest intake for world class universities is rich Chinese kids going to the West, not poor kids from the village going to Tsinghua. If you managed to do that then great for you, really, but it's not an average story.
Even if we don't want to go that high-end, tertiary educational attainment at any calibre of university in China is much much lower than in the US.
I think there are good things about the Chinese approach to education, but it's kind of silly to say they've caught up to the US and others.
> I think it's pretty significant that they are able to run a country with that demographics most of whom were not even educated.
and then eventually switch to
> I don't think K-12 attainment is an appropriate metric. Like I said elsewhere it's like comparing hygiene standards by saying we all have access to soap. But that's the most basic standard we can achieve
> I think if you compare the % of Chinese who go to world-class universities, it's a lot more relevant
This seems like a major shift in goal-posts. If your concept of "uneducated" means not going to a world-class university, then most of the world, including most people in the US are "uneducated".
It's trivial to pick a relevant metric and look up the median value for China. A quarter of the people there live on less than $5/day. They're not swanning off to do a Masters at MIT any time soon. They're not even able to move to the better cities within China, for the most part.
This person is a total anomaly. Taking them as representative is quite ridiculous and rather insulting to the hundreds of millions "with a K-12 education" that somehow are still living in abject poverty with no opportunities. It's an arbitrary and meaningless claim to make. It's like saying China and America have the same hygiene standards because most people in both places have access to soap.
Weren't we talking about education?
But that you think you both know better than a Chinese person and didn't even bother to put in some links to facts (unlike those liked that disagree, like the Pisa test) says enough.
For example, Chinese tertiary attainment is half that of the US:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_tertiary_...
Again, soap and hygiene. Since when do we compare education levels only on basic literacy and numeracy?
No, 'educated' was the term used. I'm not sure why you would think we're only talking about basic 'English' skills.
The gathered statistics are in no way comparable to Western countries which gather scores from all districts, rich and poor alike.
Because it can't, yet.
But my sense is that the ccp likes their “Sputnik moment”.
Also COMAC should deliver their first model to (domestic?)customers this year. Then you also have a joint venture with a Russian plane company.
On other hand, the US are trying to slow China's rise by hurting key industries.
This is a geopolitical struggle. The US cannot win because China is bigger than they are and so will overtake them sooner or later, but they can slow things down to maintain their dominance as long as they can.
They (the USA) fucked up Japan pretty bad. Throughout the 70s-80s the USA was fearful of the rise of Japan, their incredible ability to usurp American businesses, and their growing trade deficit surplus, which they then rolled back into US T-bonds. From an American perspective, Japan was in the 70s what China is today.
In the early-80s, the Yen-to-dollar ratio was really high. This kicked off an inflationary asset bubble within the country that lasted for several years. Starting in 1985, the yen-to-dollar ratio collapsed, falling by half from mid ¥200s in just two years and reaching a low of ¥85 by 95.
Japan entered the Lost Decade as a result of this situation. The lost decade became two, then the GFC happened, bringing it to three decades.
It is suspected that this was the result of an intentional attack on the Japanese economy by US officials with the express intent to curb Japan's rising economic power.
China has many advantages that Japan doesn't have. It's not a given that the same thing will happen.
I believe this is commonly referred to in geopolitics as the Plaza Accord.
There are smaller countries that have a higher GDP on average. Although some of those are suspect in reality; Ireland's is higher, but no one thinks of Ireland as especially more prosperous than say England. I wonder if it's because it's a tax haven.
Japan is not a small country at all. It's probably in the top 10 for population (off the top of my head, China > India > USA > Indonesia > Nigeria > Russia > Japan?). But there are no medium-to-large countries - population 35m+ - whose GDP per capita is within $10k of the US. The US is an outlier.
Moreover, I was talking about total GDP and not per capita. Among the current nations, only China and India have any hope of overtaking the US within our lifetimes (very slim for India). And that's only because of their gargantuan populations - per capita they'll still be far behind. For Japan to have overtaken the US in the 90s, they would have had to have a GDP per capita 3x of the US - which no country of any size has even today. Japan got really close, which is very impressive given its size.
> And that's only because of their gargantuan populations
All things being equal the relative economic and industrial power of countries is proportional to their population.
Unless a catastrophe befalls the US it's the countries with comparable or larger population that are threats. These includes the EU, actually, which is why the US are always wary of further EU integration.
With the likes of the EU, China, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, the US will pretty much inevitably lose their dominance and become one of the "big guys", key words being 'one of', not 'the' and not the biggest of the big guys, either.
Agreed. And this is why I said the US never had to seriously fear Japan surpassing them.
Japan's small population and land area means that they can never be world leaders in commodity production, such as oil, agriculture, mining, or timber - all of which are industries the USA performs really well in. Oil, specifically, is a crutch relied on by many nations to pad their GDP.
That's why Japan is so incredibly impressive. If you start removing commodities from the GDP comparisons (which are largely based on geographic luck), Japan, is and was an economic powerhouse.
Japan never needed to overtake the economy of the USA in pure GDP, since so much of USA GDP is in areas Japan could never compete in, such as agricultural output, they just needed to overtake the USA in a handful of key industrial areas. Which they did.
China has 4x the population of the US. The US have 4x the population of the UK.
Did the UK manage to stop the rise of the US? No. The US is much larger than any European country and thus it was inevitable that they became the dominant power (Europe helped by self-destructing, but economically the US had already overtaken European countries).
The only way the US can remain dominant is by trying to keep 'third world' countries poor. Once massive countries are on a strong development path it's just a matter of time and this is what's happening with China.
India also has the potential to overtake the US. In the future Nigeria could as well. This is actually an optimistic view as it assumes that no country is bound to be poor forever.
If China breaks her compeletely from all major US manufacturers, it's equivalent to a declaration of the end of post-2001 world economy and can bring ripples across the world. China is not prepared for that, yet.
Most of these sanctions don't really work either. China will get what it wants some other way. The US will get to look like it acted. Everyone will be happy...
What are you basing this on?
The US banned exports to 4 Chinese companies that made the machines.
So other companies spring up to fill the gap. This is problem 1: it takes very little time to setup a company, so sanctioning one is sort of pointless. You sanction PLA_Supplier1 LLC? Good thing PLA_Supplier1 LLC is interested in ordering the same kit!
The result was a roughly yearly round of sanctions. Every year's new list of names is a list of the companies that bypassed the last year's sanctions...
There is also problem 2: back in 2015 the computers used Intel parts but increasingly the Chinese are designing their own. They're not there yet, but they're making progress. TSMC still do most of the manufacture.
So the question is: how long till Chinese hackers steal the latest designs or Chinese engineers reverse engineer the parts they buy on the grey market? AND how long until China sets up a TSMC competitor?
I'm something of a hawk on China. I'm out on a ledge but here I am. I'd like to see real action on them for a long list of reasons. But before we can have real action, we need to drop the pretend action. Trump (what a turd) loved pretend action. Maybe Biden will be different? But this isn't that imho.
Source on the original tariffs:
[0] https://www.economist.com/business/2019/06/29/an-american-ba...
I was under the impression (mostly due to this podcast that talks about China's semiconductor history: https://chinatalkshow.libsyn.com/chinas-chip-dreams) that all of the big software companies that make chip tooling are outside of China and that a ban would be possible, but politically difficult.
> AND how long until China sets up a TSMC competitor?
From that same podcast it seems as though they've been trying for decades and have so far unable to do so and recent attempts(https://chinatalk.substack.com/p/billion-dollar-heist-how-sc...) have ended in massive fraud.
The problem is that on free market it is more attractive for a Chinese chip designer to go for TSMC due to their maturity and reliability.
Obviously the broadening US sanctions changes that and effectively acts as a massive boost of the domestic fab industry.
China is not just a source of cheap labour. But a source of cheap labour highly skilled in manufacturing which other countries all but abandoned over the previous decades.