Rates of Parkinson’s disease are exploding. A common chemical may be to blame
theguardian.com
theguardian.com
After doing research, it turns out their home was located very close to a Superfund cleanup site from a dry cleaner that operated in the 60's and contaminated the groundwater with TCE and PCE. The chemicals leach into the groundwater and can spread hundreds of feet per year. Buildings located over these plumes are exposed to vapors which accumulate indoors over time and expose the occupants.
According to Wikipedia, the PCE solvent which is used at nearly every dry cleaner across the country has been known as a x10 risk factor for Parkinson's [1].
For California residents, you can find out about these groundwater plumes on the waterboards website. They are located all over Silicon Valley and former dry-cleaners around the country [2].
It's been detected in milk, eggs, water..
I am grateful that collectively things seem to be improving. We're learning more about diseases, their causes, and their treatments.
1. https://www.thevintagenews.com/2017/01/24/an-energy-drink-th...
I don't think genetic sequencing falls into the category of "natural selection".
Now consuming them may not be ideal but the fear of the unknown is overemphasized. We already know from pharmacology that higher effectiveness needs fewer data instances to prove from the strength of the effect. The more powerful something's effect not noticing it becomes increasingly improbable as patterns should become increasingly obvious in large numbers. Try not to notice plutonium toxicity.
The fact we aren't seeing more immediate effects from higher level of exposure suggests it is not catastrophic - may not be good but it is an implicit upper bound on harm based upon what we see cannot be possible. To give an absurd example we know PFAS does not cause people's heads to explode at current levels of exposure because there have been zero reports of people's heads exploding without a known cause.
There is a long list of common and unexplained medical problems like fibromyalgia awaiting an explanation like "that water you've been drinking is toxic." There is no shortage of illnesses that could potentially be caused by a problem like that.
>Rates of Parkinson’s disease are exploding
I wouldn't exactly call exploding rates of a brain destroying incurable disease a good thing.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trichloroethylene
I guess I'm a little skeptical of the explaination that it could be the source of the explosion of Parkinson's over the past decade. Trichloroethylene has known to be a problem since at least the 50s. For example, its use in bulk in dry cleaning was replaced in the 50s with tetrachloroethylene, and it was used for spot cleaning only up until 2000.
The only seemingly recent increase in uses are:
"The demand for TCE as a degreaser began to decline in the 1950s in favor of the less toxic 1,1,1-trichloroethane. However, 1,1,1-trichloroethane production has been phased out in most of the world under the terms of the Montreal Protocol, and as a result trichloroethylene has experienced some resurgence in use as a degreaser."
I don't think most people are exposed to industrial degreaser in their line of work, let alone in domestic settings.
"TCE is also used in the manufacture of a range of fluorocarbon refrigerants[13] such as 1,1,1,2-tetrafluoroethane more commonly known as HFC 134a"
Now this seems somewhat plausible. R134a started to be used in the early to mid 90s, so the timeline would make sense. However, it says it's only used in the manufacture of it. Perhaps there's some residual left in the final R134a product, and that's how people would be exposed to it? Plenty of ACs and fridges in people's lives.
I did a 23 and Me test and never unlocked the health results. I'm a little terrified of finding out that dementia is in my future as well.
> Chlorinated brake cleaners (often sold as non-flammable) use organochlorides like tetrachloroethylene and Dichloromethane.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brake_cleaner#Composition
Compared to the new formulation
https://www.crcindustries.com/products/brakleen-174-pro-seri...
so called 50 state compliant. https://www.crcindustries.com/products/brakleen-174-pro-seri...
TCE is a degreaser which is used to clean car parts so most likely.
In my mom's case I wonder about a viral infection she had in her eye. It was quite severe.
Does that suggest it's environmental rather than genetic?
I think the cutting edge opinion is that it isn't known why they occur.
For example, some people are prone to alcoholism in a hereditary way. But if they live in a society that has zero alcohol, they won't ever become alcoholic. Upon moving to a society where alcohol is sold freely and frequently, they may sink into alcoholism without having any obviously alcoholic ancestor.
Two carriers have a child together, the child has the disorder, this is how they learn they are carriers.
I was in almost the identical boat but I pulled the trigger on looking at the test results, ended up fine. Better to know and try to manage it I think.
There's also the angle that if I want to buy life insurance I may be better off not knowing.
After seeing how it's affecting my dad, I know how I'd "manage" it. It really is awful and decades of mental decline coupled with terrifying hallucinations is not something I'm willing to endure.
I think it’s moot because life insurance will check your genes as part of underwriting.
In the US genes can’t be used to discriminate for employment or healthcare [0], but can for everything else.
I got a quote for term insurance in 2008 and they tested for lots of genetic conditions.
You can probably get by if you have unique, rare mutations that aren’t commonly studied. But anything basic enough to be found in a 23andme profile is likely to be checked by your insurance.
The boundary of the area contaminated by TCE is roughly south of 22nd street, north of Los Reales Road, east of Interstate 19 and west of Del Moral Boulevard.
Hughes Aircraft and the city of Tucson were accused of dumping TCE in the water table for 29 years, beginning in 1952. A lawsuit against the city was settled in 1981 for $31 million, and in 1991 a suit against Hughes Aircraft was settled for $84.5 million. In 1981 the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) tested water wells on the south side of Tucson and found TCE levels were beyond the EPA limits.
In 1983, the EPA set a large southside area of Tucson on its Superfund cleanup list. In March 2000, a $35 million plan was secured for cleanup of the contaminated areas. Other government supervised cleanups started about 20 years ago. The last settlements involving TCE lawsuits occurred in June 2006.
Specifically issues around drinking water for residential housing with wells in proximity to the airbases.
A common AC charge for a car is around 500g +/- 25g It doesn't take much of that leaking out before it doesn't blow cold air. Even if there was a bunch of residual TCE, you're unlikely to be subject to a long term exposure because you'd notice your AC or fridge not working long before the full charge leaked out to expose you.
In spite of the efforts of the world's accountants, fridges and air conditioners still routinely last a decade or more. That's because the charge of R134a is largely staying put.
I lived next to the superfund site of Palo Alto, which was right under Mayfield Soccer Complex. Little had been done to monitor the risks for the children [2]. Reading this article linking TCE to Parkinson's disease, I hope there will be more awareness about Silicon Valley toxic undergrounds.
[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/26/lens/the-superfund-sites-... [2] http://www.aarongreenspan.com/writing/20130404/in-search-of-...
My family decided not to live in this development (or in the nearby neighborhood) because of the risks of TCE contamination. But who knows what risks there are in the area we decided to live, which is right next to SLAC!
Synopsis: "The team is hard at work at the community garden center when a series of health problems arise: Gaby passes out, several other kids and adults get sick, and even some rabbits die. It's soon learned that a highly toxic chemical, tetrachloroethylene (commonly known as "perc") has been illegally dumped in the ground under the garden and is to blame. As the authorities cannot remove the barrels in a reasonable amount of time, unless the guilty party is tracked down, the team sets off to find the person responsible for such a dirty act. Investigation eventually leads to a local philanthropist named John Miller (Brian Reddy), who may not be the "Citizen of the Year" that he seems." [1]
Does anyone else remember this episode and have the same reaction as I do?
[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Ghostwriter_episodes
I smell weird things in the mornings sometimes, and also after rainstorms. We lived pretty close to another super fund site when I was growing up, and my father has Parkinson's. So I assume that I get to die early.
> in the US, the number of people with Parkinson’s has increased 35% the last 10 years
10 years ago, the oldest U.S. baby boomers were reaching 65. Now, they are reaching 75[1].
Given the fact that birth rate went from 19/1000 to 27/1000 between 1935 and 1946 and the fact that people born in 1946 faced a much friendlier environment to grow up in, the numbers are not surprising.
The fact is, industry also grew at the same time, so it will always be possible to find positive correlations between prevalence of some disease and some industrial chemical.
It is not impossible that a causal relationship exists, but that needs to be established using something other than simple correlations.
[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mid-20th_century_baby_boom#Nor...
Also food malnutrition is way less common, than it was before.
But we also are exposed to many new chemicals, not occuring in nature, so we could not adopt to them.
So ... I guess there is no definite, simple answer.
> 10 years ago, the oldest U.S. baby boomers were reaching 65. Now, they are reaching 75[1].
The numbers do match up rather well. The US population over the age of 65 has grown around 33% in the last 10 years.
I see conflicting information regarding the average/median age at diagnosis, but it seems to be around there.
Which strikingly echoes GP's "birth rate went from 19/1000 to 27/1000 between 1935 and 1946".
But 10 years too late ? I'm confused maybe.
Good point. I believe I was thinking about 75. 65 crept in because I was also going to mention that at the beginning of the US Social Security program (1935), the assumption was no one lived much beyond 65.
Here is a table that might cast light on the diagnosis of Parkinson's by age: https://academic.oup.com/view-large/1251178
Note population pyramids for 2000[1], 2010[2], and 2020[3].
[1]: https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-states-of-america/2... [2]: https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-states-of-america/2... [3]: https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-states-of-america/2...
Going [1]->[2]->[3] shows that the real boom after all is the cohort born around 1960.
There is a boom in birth rates which remains sustained high for about 10 years. However, the conditions of early childhood environment keep improving along with a reduction the hazard of early death. The 1945 cohort does end up being hit by the Vietnam war whereas people born in the 60s do not face any of that.
Population numbers reflect who survived.
There are more studies according to the article that make the solid case, but one instance of correlation is not necessarily a smoking gun.
It doesn't strike me as fair to dismiss studies like the ones quoted (from the article) as simple correlations.
I didn't see the particular studies and I am not dismissing them out of hand, but I've seen a lot of studies, lost a lot of battles against all sorts of unsound statistical analysis. When I taught Intro Stats, I had no trouble finding examples of what not to do to illustrate in class: Just look at the front page of the campus newspaper which seemed intent on filling pages with bogus "studies".
Again, I am not calling this one[1] bogus, but I am going to point out that study seems to consist solely of finding people who have Parkinson's and have worked around the chemical.
Causality requires (not p) => (not q).
[1]: https://hero.epa.gov/hero/index.cfm/reference/details/refere...
TCE and its relation to Parkinson's has been studied for at least the last 15 years. Though I haven't come across anything definitive on the mechanism of action, there seems to be indication that a combination of TCE or its analogues combined with other risk factors (assumed to be genetic) generates substantial progressive dopaminergic neuron loss, a hallmark of Parkinson's disease progression.
Interestingly, the Guardian article does not cite a source for that claim, so it is impossible to evaluate it soundly.
However, just above, it states:
>> the number of people with Parkinson’s has increased 35% the last 10 years
which is completely in line with the increase in at risk population + improved probability of diagnosis.
That doesn't mean there is no link.
We need to go back to basics here instead of trying to over-science things. Bust out that bottle of vinegar and keep things simple in my opinion.
Also the beautiful flow graph https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/c_fit,f_auto... (graph for US Women I think) does show that after about 70 “mental” starts being a significant percentage of deaths, although Parkinson’s is only one component of that I think.
Source for graph is: https://flowingdata.com/2016/01/05/causes-of-death/
[1] The variation in distribution among age groups can be controlled by more sophisticated methods, but it may be sufficient to make the groups small and multivariate analysis (although results might be weakened by assumptions of independent errors if groups are too small).
https://actaneurocomms.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s4...
My understanding:
plausible: it is possible to make reasonable case for that argument.
possible: is capable of becoming true, though it’s not always reasonable.
The logic of possible nicotine link seems completely clear on the basis of current nt knowledge. That does not mean it exists or is important. Somebody has to look into it.
Smoking has declined by at least half in the last fifty years in the United States. Also not a small effect!
"Very plausible" here means "someone should really do a study where they correlate for lower levels of nicotine use and see if there's anything left to explain".
I can't imagine anyone would see "very plausible" and think the explanation should be accepted without investigation. That's just not what that phrase means.
> Smoking has ...
Neither I, nor anyone in this thread, has contested the existence of evidence to support this claim.
> "Very plausible" here means ...
Why does "plausible" not suffice?
> I can't imagine anyone would see "very plausible" and think the explanation should be accepted without investigation. That's just not what that phrase means.
I didn't suggest otherwise.
> In 2016 PD resulted in about 211,000 deaths globally, an increase of 161% since 1990. The death rate increased by 19% to 1.81 per 100,000 people during that time.
News article about it: https://wbng.com/2019/11/21/40-years-after-spill-former-ibm-...
EPA Website with status on the cleanup: https://www.epa.gov/hwcorrectiveactionsites/hazardous-waste-...
I view this direct connection as more compelling an explanation.
Both the book (and the movie) are actually quite good and worth checking out.
Now that it's on the market, and the link is suspected, how hard is it going to be to get it out of use?
It's trichloroethylene, but only maybe?
But really, how could they possibly narrow it down to that? How can they ignore all the metals that we are injected and sprayed with as possible alternative causes?