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It's around 23.69% if my math is correct.

I mean, it's not nothing, but I wouldn't say "practically guarantee".

A 23% chance of a 1 in 10,000 chance thing happening every 14,400 chances? That can't be right.

huh, 76%... my bad, forget I said anything.

p(a') = 1 - 1/10000

1 - p(a')^14400 = 0.76308930063962