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Comment by mectors | Hacker News Reader

The lack of differentiation between two EV brands will not be the major disruption to the car industry. It will be the ownership. In 3 to 5 years we should see autonomous vehicles that are offered by robot taxi networks. The same car can offer transport services to 5 families or more and still each family will be able to use the car to similar levels they are currently used to. Customers will no longer have to worry about maintenance, charging, insurance, parking, cleaning,... They will pay less and get more. The outcome will be that the number of cars sold will be a lot less than today. Car companies will not be able to make any margin on maintenance because EVs need a lot less maintenance and can soon drive a million kilometres. Only very few companies can create/train the self-driving technology, e.g. Tesla, Google,... The outcome will be that we will see a lot less car companies.

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> In 3 to 5 years we should see autonomous vehicles

I've heard this before... ah yes. Five years ago[0].

Now, I'm not saying this won't happen. But predicting timelines on something that does not yet exist is tricky.

More to your point though... right now a lot of people value having "their" car despite all the drawbacks you listed. It can certainly vary (i.e. city vs suburbs vs rural) but people like just leaving stuff in their car, hopping in it the moment they are ready to leave, rather than trying to gather their kids, stuff, pets, etc. while waiting an unpredictable time for a summoned vehicle to arrive, and then going through the loading process, and then making sure nothing gets left behind.

I think it's possible we'll see a divergence, where people that begrudgingly own a car today will happily move into the future you envision, but quite a large portion of car owners will still want to own cars pretty far into the future.

[0] https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/2016/04/29/...

Slight tangent, but I've noticed there are two types of Tesla fans. They intersect somewhat, but also have big areas of disagreement.

The first are car enthusiasts. They like the cars Tesla is producing.

The second are robotaxi/FSD evangelists. They want Tesla to spearhead the movement of ultimately eliminating (or significantly reducing) car ownership in favor of the robotaxi network. In fact, some of them even want Tesla to stop selling cars to the general public in favor of retaining them for the robotaxi fleet.

The autonomous thing should help increase VMT significantly

Possibly drastically and fatally

But not unexpectedly

We need a carbon tax stat

There are a few people who use a car rarely enough that a taxi is cheaper than owning, and if self driving cars eliminate the driver and thus drive down costs a few more people will join that number. However these people generally live someplace where local public transit is good, and parking is expensive.

For the vast majority of suburb dwellers, buying a car will be more cost effective. Most of the costs are the same either way, but you have no need for a profit margin, and you don't pay as much fuel (electrons are still fuel!) to run around empty getting to the next passenger. By owning your own car you can in turn leave your stuff in it just in case. By owning your car you ensure it is there when you want to go as opposed to waiting for one to arrive.

> It will be the ownership. In 3 to 5 years we should see autonomous vehicles that are offered by robot taxi networks.

We already see autonomous vehicles offered by non-robot taxi networks... And... what so?

> Customers will no longer have to worry about maintenance, charging, insurance, parking, cleaning,...

It's called taxi...

> Only very few companies can create/train the self-driving technology, e.g. Tesla, Google,... The outcome will be that we will see a lot less car companies.

There is no dramatic differentiation to current "AI" driving systems what-so-ever, they are all quite dumb, and have to act on the lowest margin of caution, just like all "self-driving" attempts working on the same principle in the last 30 years.

Uber and Lyft do this today except for the robot/autonomous part. Hasn't significantly dented car ownership that I can see. From my experience, the biggest benefit is that it makes it easier to be a tourist without renting a car.

Will these robot taxi cars require a vaccine passport to operate?

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