My lease is up in a bit and I’m considering a Model Y or a Mach-e. Something could come out soon that’s a contender, but I can’t imagine what.
Can’t imagine opting in for FSD in 2021.
My lease is up in a bit and I’m considering a Model Y or a Mach-e. Something could come out soon that’s a contender, but I can’t imagine what.
Can’t imagine opting in for FSD in 2021.
The actually usable stuff - namely autopilot - is available without FSD. All this said, the car is great, even though FSD is a con.
I've been thinking about FSD for a while but I'm less and less likely to pony up $10k for it. I would like to get several other features that are bundled with it though. Things like Autopark, Auto Lane Change, (Smart) Summon, and Traffic & Stop Sign Control[0] would be super valuable to me and if they were available separately I would definitely be more inclined to purchase them. Maybe that's why they are not un-bundled though; no one would purchase FSD otherwise.
For me, “foreseeable” also includes FSD actually becoming a real software package we can download for a fee. I expect that package along with Tesla Network would be worth somewhere around $US30k/year for the first couple of years until no more taxis are driven by humans.
I also expect that either FSD/TN will become available as a subscription option where I can send my car to take part in Tesla Network while I am not using it, or I will be able to finance the purchase of a new FSD capable vehicle and the car will earn me enough money to cover the cost of ownership and participation in TN ie: it will cover the cost of commercial registration and insurance, tyres, maintenance, and payments on the principal + interest loan used to purchase the vehicle. I don’t expect it to be printing money for me, but I do expect a better ROI than having my money in a term deposit or superannuation (somewhat like 401(k)) account.
IMHO once any vehicle hits the commercial market with fully autonomous capability, the concept of private ownership of passenger vehicles will be dead within ten years.
I fully expect this Model 3 to be the last car I buy for my own use. I anticipate robot taxis being reality within a decade, even for limited scenarios such as inside specific geofences covering the “safe” roads inside a city’s metropolitan limits, and the well maintained highways linking those geofences regions.
In the meantime I am enjoying the comfort of a car designed for long distance travel with pleasant seats, quiet interior (quieter than my Jazz), and reasonably attractive styling.
I like the feature but in its current state is not worth the money.
Unlike many many others here, I think self driving is closer than we think. Mostly because humans are horrific drivers, not because robots are great. Even a pretty bad robot is better than plenty of people on the road. If robots drove badly and made mistakes but didn’t, say, ever run a red light or pass on the right, they would probably be safer. Pragmatism over idealism. I think Tesla is certainly liable for their marketing claims - and I don’t mean this as a defense of Tesla whatsoever - but are we all going to pretend we believe marketing? McDonalds burgers don’t look like they do on TV and AI required careful supervision - that’s life.
If the rumors come true and they offer it as a monthly subscription service, I might buy it for a few months at a time for summer road trips. Navigate on Autopilot would make a long drive like that more comfortable.
But otherwise I made the decision on the feature set it has now, and I can’t justify spending 20% of the car’s price on that.
If they brought out the “enhanced autopilot” feature they offered in the EU for roughly equivalent to USD $4000 I’d jump on that in an instant.
The best thing is to be objective. Tesla's FSD implementation based on their videos suffers from one major fault: object detection. Why ? Because they rely on low resolution cameras and even the best algorithms we have today are very far from perfect. Without detecting objects 100% of the time you simply can't do full service driving.
That's why companies which have LiDAR i.e. Cruise and Waymo are so far ahead despite not having as much training data to work with nor the head start that Tesla had.
So my opinion would be by all means buy a Tesla but the facts are that FSD is not done and there is a good chance it will never be done without a hardware upgrade.
Here's one example of NoA trying to run me into a wall. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VRSbJ6uxGck
Dont get me started up on autopilot not detecting stalled cars in car pool lane.