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Comment by skipwalker | Hacker News Reader

I'm sorry but I think this is hogwash. The idea that America could function for 6 weeks in a lockdown to the level described to actually stop the transmission, by the time transmission started, is not plausible to me, and I imagine many others. This would have entailed no one working at grocery stores, no deliveries, no travel, no global trade. I just don't buy that this was ever plausible for however long people suggest: 3 weeks, 6 weeks whatever. And to what end. When do we open up to the rest of the world. I think your sentiment is hindsight wishful thinking/blame assignment. Now, criticizing the fact that we did not try what I would term more effective measures to stop transmission are fair points. Wide-spread cheap testing, ramping up massive manufacturing of real N95 respirators for the entire country, I think these are more plausibly effective techniques we did not do that are worthy of criticism.

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I don't like the xenophobic tone of the parent, but you are incorrect.

> This would have entailed no one working at grocery stores, no deliveries, no travel, no global trade. I just don't buy that this was ever plausible for however long people suggest: 3 weeks, 6 weeks whatever.

The experiences of (at least) New Zealand and Australia are clear evidence it is absolutely possible, without the absurd extremes you are talking about.

Both of which still have lockdowns. So no, they couldn't manage it either.

They periodically reimport it.

If I had to guess, I would guess that COVID can be transmitted by fomites, especially if kept cold, but that it’s extremely rare. In a place like the US or Europe, this is insignificant: your chance of getting seriously sick due to touching something is negligible, and the rate of additional cases due to this effect is inconsequential for public health. But in AU or NZ, where the background rate is essentially zero, a single reintroduction is a big deal.

Although I largely agree with you, they found a case in Norway where the most likely explanation was contact spreading from a person who had worked in that area 2 days prior. I feel there must be another explanation, but they do probably know the facts a lot better than me.

> They periodically reimport it.

Right, so why would the US - with much more porous borders - somehow do better?

I think doing as well as NZ would be a laudable goal. If the whole world did that well, then I think COVID would be quickly eradicated.

But, beyond the fact that the US has large land borders, the US has a genuine problem. We are economically dependent on legal and illegal cross-border seasonal migration. I personally think that, with actual political will, the borders could be made a lot less porous, but this would involve attacking the supply and demand sides. Neither party is interested.

They are islands though, even if large ones. I don't think there are any large connected landmass that has managed to successfully take a New Zealand/Taiwan. Also US has different states with different rules, but no ability to restrict travel between the states. And lots of rural areas that potentially had small covid pocket before it got diagnosed.

I don't like the previous administration one bit, but this was a really hard problem. By the time covid was taken seriously I think it is confirmed it was a least spreading in Seattle and Bay Area.

>They are islands though

This reads like Covid arrived in the US through uncontrolled land crossings from Canada or Mexico? I'm pretty sure like Australia and NZ, it came by land and sea mainly.

> Also US has different states with different rules, but no ability to restrict travel between the states

Also Australia never had seen states close borders before. Yet somehow each of the 6 states and 2 territories managed to get legislation passed to do this, get police mobilised, and just got community buy-in that was going to work.

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