Comment by alexaholic | Hacker News Reader

Comment by alexaholic | Hacker News Reader

I’ve seen some comments here saying this is one in a million. Here’s the thing: while that may be statistically true, it’s not an argument to convince people to take the shot. You can’t tell folks “hey, listen, there’s a very slight chance you’re gonna die, but don’t you worry - mathematics is on your side”. It looks like a lottery nobody wants to play. People don’t care about mathematics. Mathematics didn’t make sense in school, it sure not gonna make sense in their life-or-death situation. Ironically, this is the kind of irrational thinking that needlessly exposes the very same people to the virus. The difference is the virus is an accident, while the antivirus is a choice, so I guess they’re essentially saying “I’d rather my death was an accident not my deliberate choice”.

I don’t blame people, though. A friend of mine did the AZ shot recently. The next day he had chest pains and palpitations so severe he thought he was going to have a heart attack. He has a heart disease, but the doctor said the vaccine was safe, and he trusts doctors. Now he’s sh!t scared to take the second dose. The doctor says he’s gonna do fine, and he can’t get tested to see if it’s safe. The vaccine is the test. Should I tell him about statistics? I’d be heartless if I did. He’s well aware of the numbers, but the fear of death (or the desire to live) win against mathematics.

Darwin. Every single time.

> It looks like a lottery nobody wants to play.

I would suggest you tell the people you are referring to here to stay in bed. And if they must get out of bed, at least never go downstairs.

https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/all-injuries/preventable-death-o...

People overwhelmingly don't the consider the probability of mortality in their daily lives, so why are they considering it now ?

I’ve no idea why I’m being downvoted. I’d appreciate it if anyone replied and explained why they’d done so.

Because you sound like all the anti-vaxxers on Facebook. ”I know science says it’s safe, but here’s an emotion-inducing anecdote that makes you second-guess things”

It’s nothing like that. I’m simply stating a sciency argument won’t work to the masses. As far as the “emotion-inducing anecdote” is concerned, I’m only telling that story to remind that mathematics does more harm where a hug is more appropriate.

I for one don’t think your post is worth a downvote, you represent a legitimate train of thought, maybe even for a lot of people. Risk compared with your own health is surely a different “calculation” then if it’s someone else.

My own thoughts about it (rational or not) is that mRNA is more KISS -just the key protein- which is favourable in complex systems. It’s not that AZ isn’t safe, Pfizer/Moderna just seem safer at this point.

Thank you!

Because the chance of dying of Covid is 100x to 1000x times higher than dying from the vaccine

Things that cause more blood clots than the Covid vaccine: covid itself, pregnancy, birth control, etc

But you prefer the virus, sure, go ahead. But a tube down your throat is not comfortable.

But you need to differentiate this by age group. Chance of dying of Covid is not 100x to 1000x times higher for the age group affected by the CVT so I can understand every caution here. Its not correct to compare/mix the different age groups from my POV.

In the UK people have no problem with taking the AZ vaccine.

Having an AZ injection is probably the safest thing people will do that day and will then massively decrease risk of covid complications. That's how it should be framed, IMHO, instead of scaring people with the very small chance that something might possibly go wrong (which is lower than the chance of having an accident on the way to the injection).

Here in RO, as far as I can tell, it seems everyone knows someone (or knows someone who knows someone) who did the AZ vaccine and had a scary reaction. Not one to make the news, but scary enough to look for the alternatives (Pfizer and Moderna) or simply postpone vaccination.

How much of that is just confirmation bias? The AZ vaccine isn't approved where I live (USA), but I know plenty of people who have had scary reactions to the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. The scary reactions are apparently proof that the vaccine is working as expected on your immune system, but that's small consolation when you're puking your guts out and suffering from dehydration.

See, this is what I’m talking about: the idea that masses would think differently if they learned about and understood irrational beliefs, cognitive biases, statistics etc. is confirmation bias.

Also from RO, and the other day I saw on FB a former colleague with stronger religious beliefs shared a conspiracy theory. It was pretty elaborate, linking someone who had psychological trouble after being in the AZ vaccine trials with the number of the beast, Nephalem and other apocalyptic prophecies, as well as something about an apparent DoD leak from 2005 claiming to engineer a virus that blocked a gene manifesting in loss of religious beliefs that would be targeted at middle eastern fundamentalists.

I tried hard to debunk it but took me a lot of time and not sure if anyone reasoned with my explanation more than with it.

Not the safest if you're below 30 and have correct care available, no?

IFR of 15-24 year olds is 40 in a million, so higher than 30 in a million

That number also ignores effects of long covid

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/apr/01/long-covid-s...

The chance of a car accident is quite higher than the probability of vaccine complications...

It's simply not reasonable to worry about covid vaccines in general and AZ specifically. Unfortunately it seems that there is a lot of scaremongering in the EU.

What is your alternative approach? To not tell people the truth? Because the truth is that almost any cure or vaccine or medicine in general has side effects. The thing is that the incidence is very low, which gives better overall probability of health given the chances of deaths from COVID, and that's why we think vaccines are a good idea, for example.

> Should I tell him about statistics? I’d be heartless if I did.

What?? That's the only actually truthful and objective information you can give to him. How is that "heartless"? You don't need to tell him that in a cold voice and never acknowledge his fears and feelings, you can discuss all that and make him feel better somehow.

But telling someone truthful information - is not heartless, it's one of the best things you can do for them.

I don’t have an alternative. I’m not that smart and I'm appalled by the so-many people who think they are.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com