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In Germany incidence of CVST is around .3-.5/100,000 per year. (Higher in women under 50; some undiagnosed cases probably notwithstanding)

Vaxzevira (the A-Z vaccine) has been in use for less than 3 months, ~2.2M doses have been given, resulting in 31 cases. So, worst case, you would have expected around 5 cases at this time.

(Edit: changed acronym to English version, instead of the German one)

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Historical trends don't factor in the past 12m stay-at and work-from home spike, and related spike in sedentary living.

Your natural incidence rate is whole-population but the vaccine rollout has been weighted to the oldest and least healthy. These may be the population that most of those cases happened in otherwise.

You can assuage some of these things by looking at other vaccines, assuming they're given to the same demographics.

Does this comparison account for the vaccinations being administered to specific populations? In the UK it's been targeted at the most vulnerable & elderly.

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