UK reports 25 fresh cases of thrombosis associated with the AstraZeneca vaccine | Hacker News Reader

UK reports 25 fresh cases of thrombosis associated with the AstraZeneca vaccine

eminetra.co.uk

23 pointsreddotX19 comments

I wish this article reported the denominator. 25 out of how many doses administered? What is the baseline % of people who should have gotten thrombosis naturally in the last 3 months (since doses started being administered).

Perhaps the answer is that this is a real risk. But the public should be taught to think in relativistic ways. It's not that hard if every newspaper always did it as reinforcement.

It’s 8 incidents out of 18.1 million vaccinations according to the UK government’s own report. The prevalence generally is estimated to be between 2 and 5 per million per year [1] in a 2016 paper.

Given the population prevalence, you’d expect 36 to 100 incidents in the vaccinated population. Yet they found only 8. I’m not qualified to say whether that means anything.

[1] https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/full/10.1161/STROKEAHA.116.0...

When comparing to the baseline, we need to divde the per year stats to some shorter time period, because these AstraZeneca related cases happen pretty quickly after the jab, which means that the observation period isn't a full year.

It's also worth looking at the age distribution. The cases that are thought to be linked with AstraZeneca are with younger people. I wonder how that compares to the baseline thrombosis age distribution.

In full 3-stage clinical trials, would this cause passage with a disclaimer about side effects, or would this cause failure?

I don't have enough information about this sector to tell

Phase 3 trials are typically not big enough to find this level of risk.

It took millions of jabs to find a slightly elevated risk, and this I think has to be compared to some other commonly applied vaccine, not placebo.

If the risk is "very rare", like less than 1 in 10000, then it warrants a label and maybe precautionary dose of aspirin.

Correcting myself: the UK reported 22 incidents of CVST and 8 of other clotting events.

Edit your post instead of correcting yourself.

Also, this is a very specific and rare type of clotting event - don't compare it to clotting events in general.

And I did mention the incidence of CVST, not just general clotting.

It was not editable.

Reminiscent of that time that Apple/Foxconn got bad PR back in 2010 for 15 suicides at their manufacturing plants in a single year, however it was out of a worker population of 930,000, despite the suicide rate in China generally being 22+ per 100,000, well over 10x higher.

People still report the false narrative as fact, a decade on. I wonder about the long-term effects of these vaccine scare stores on our society's health.

Was the general population made of factory workers only?

"In Norway, health officials have reported at least 6 of Jab’s 120,000 recipients of such cases, four of whom died.
In Germany, 31 cases have been reported after 2.7 million vaccinations, 29 of which are women aged 20-63 and two men aged 36-57. Nine of them have died.

By March 24, MHRA had received 22 reports of CVST and 8 reports of other thrombotic events with low platelets out of a total of 18.1 million doses of AstraZeneca vaccine. This corresponds to approximately one case for every 600,000 recipients."

Those numbers appear lower than the baseline prevalence of venous thrombosis in the general population [1]. Maybe the vaccine is protective?

https://www.cdc.gov/ncbddd/dvt/data.html

No seriously. The estimated prevalence of venous thrombosis in the United States is 1:1000. The reported numbers of VTE after the vaccine would be normal in the general population. I am an emergency physician and I diagnose and manage PE and DVT several times per week. To me this seems much ado about nothing.

Egads, what a terrible source. Can the mods please replace that with (say) the FT?

https://www.ft.com/content/2e52a5b0-29b9-4c7e-8cfb-97bf8edea...

The actual press release is here, but the details of the new reports are buried far down the page:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid...

Paywalled

https://archive.is/3CPC4

Thrombosis affects mainly people under-55s. I wonder if now that younger people are getting the vaccine, it will increase the numbers. Mostly seniors have been vaccinated in the UK, which might explain why they've seen way fewer cases than continental Europe.

Some people here have written software under a time crunch, and under a “management desired result” ...

Should we not be surprised with bugs in this vaccine deployment?

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