I consider myself an intelligent person. Maybe I'm not, but I try to take informed decisions and stay up to date with the latest technology developments. Even with this, I have a very mediocre understanding of cryptocurrencies. I do understand well how a blockchain works, but I would be lying if I said that I understand well the economic dynamics of the cryptocurrency market.
For starters, there are a gazillion of tradeable cryptocurrencies with different premises and value propositions. They all have extremely different dynamics with the only common denominator being the concept of a blockchain.
I do invest on cryptocurrencies and I try to use some signals, mainly trying to understand the viability of the coins I pick in the long term and their potential impact on the financial system. It's not a very scientific analysis, but I can tell you it's deeper than the analysis than most people who invest in crypto do.
Most people just put money on Crypto markets because its exuberant growth. They are not thinking on whether this is a viable investment or not. They just want to participate and most times this is with an all-in win or lose mentality. And I'm not only talking about retail investment. Many institutional investors are operating on the same idea.
Crypto is extremely speculative. The more speculative an investment is, the less predictable. So, I totally buy the idea of a lottery-like behavior. This is going to be the case until crypto coins start morphing into actual transactable currencies that can be used for commerce, remittances, wages, etc.