I think it also takes experience to see that simple solutions can be more robust; the more natural response to foreseeing future problems (another trait) is to have specific responses for all of them, which generates a complex result.
I once had a boss who still coded, even though all the developers begged him to stop. His code was spaghetti, but worse was his inability to come up with more than one solution to a problem. If the first solution he came up with was complicated and error-prone then that's the one he proceeded with.
At this point, I'm extremely unconvinced the problem is just education or juniority/seniority. The "paper factory" is just doing what companies are demanding. The real problem is a general lack of competence being used to market products, be they good when used properly (e.g. GoF, where many readers only look at design patterns and completely forget "composition over inheritance"), or snake oil.