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Right, but as the comment above was pointing out, there are many other factors.

Pfizer/Moderena both did their trial from July-November, whereas J&J did their phase 3 from Sept-January. Looking at the COVID case graph [0], you can see J&J was tested at the peak. Not only that, J&J was party tested in the UK and South Africa, when the two new variants were starting to take over.

[0] https://media.npr.org/assets/img/2021/02/15/seamus-coronavir...

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Just this week we also saw data from Pfizer & Moderna mRNA vaccine rollouts to frontline healthcare workers in December (at a time of peak infection and emerging variants) that touted 80% effectiveness after a single dose, 90% after two doses. I'm struggling to find a reason not to interpret that as further evidence that the mRNA vaccines are in fact more effective than the J&J shot.

Medical workers take precautions better than the general public, maybe? But they're also far more exposed.

80% with one dose seems right in line with 75% with one dose of J&J (in the US). For what it's worth, J&J is also now doing a phase trial of two doses, and I expect that to be around 90% too.

So yes, once you take into account the +/- 5% error, they seem to be pretty much equal.

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