A few decades ago, even the greatest talents in the world needed a recording contract to reach a large audience, and that went through a few large companies.
Today that still helps to get the best equipment and the best people working on your stuff. But you can also record in a home studio with better tech than The Beatles ever had access to.
Not a flat playing field at all, but I think a fair amount of people do come up that way.
As for the best songwriters... I don't really know the business, and I don't want to pretend to. You're probably right for the Megahits. Maybe I'm right for the filler tracks?