It is not ‘scientific’ to base risk entirely on experienced probability, especially without taking into account the relative scale of the cost.

A 10% chance of something bad happening could be an acceptable risk or not, depending on how bad the bad outcome is. Is it death? In that case, 10% is way too high... eat that old pizza seven times, and you already have a greater than 50% chance of being dead from food poisoning.

This is the problem with using personal experience for low probability/high cost events. Drunk driving is like this; I know too many people who say “drunk driving isn’t dangerous! I’ve driven drunk dozens of times and have never had anything bad happen!”

Most of the time you are fine, but the extreme cost of what happens when you aren’t make it a risk that should not be taken.