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So, two competing hypotheses: 1) France knows something we don't know about the likelihood of them getting into a high-intensity war 2) France's military is worried about the civilian government cutting their budget until they are irrelevant, as happened in most of the rest of European NATO, and wants to look relevant

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It's Greece-Turkey, as others have said. Turkey has burned through much of it's foreign reserves, tourism is fucked and we could see Erdogan whipping up nationalist sentiment in the face of major economic difficulties.

Longer term, as Putin slides out of the picture with his medical issues, Russia is an interesting candidate for instability. The Chinese might try to solidify their land grab in the east, but the bigger worry is Russia breaking apart and imploding.

Europe has zero capability for warfare in the Pacific, so that is irrelevant.

Putin's medical issues are unconfirmed and even with them, he may not resign for another decade plus. I remember recently how western media had all but confirmed Kim Jong-Un was dead and it was being kept secrey.

Turkey has already had varying involvement with warfar recently with engagements in Syria and Armenia-Azerbaijan. I would not be suprised to see them engage in further conflict.

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