A Brief History of the Hedge Fund
newyorker.com
newyorker.com
Financial "technology" pretty seldom actually originates in academia. It's more common that academics formally describe or justify something that market practitioners are already doing. The piece briefly mentions Bachelier doing this. There's good evidence that option prices were (relatively) efficient several decades before Black-Scholes was discovered. And Jones arguably came up with the notion of "beta" before CAPM was a thing. The only real exception I can think of is factor investing.
This might seem kind of petty. But the notion that academia drives (or should drive) finance is not a benign myth. The LTCM crisis and the 2008 GFC were arguably caused by the uncritical application of ideas developed in the academy. I expect more.
As far as I know Ed Thorp also made a lot of money after B-S was published. So it doesn't necessarily follow that B-S made the market more efficient. Also, doesn't his discovering B-S before it's publication and using it to make money support what I'm saying?
The opening line itself should give away the bias. Despite the pandemic and everything else going on, there was no market crisis last year. Quite the opposite in fact. It was basically impossible to lose money, no matter what you invested in.
The article talks about hedge fund managers making record amounts of money – that's because that is what hedge funds are designed for. In an era where you can buy pretty much any security for free with a few clicks, their standard 2% of assets/20% of profits annual fee structure is absurd.
Sure hedge funds have made their investors money. The S&P 500, small caps, crypto, commodities, treasuries, currencies all have as well (and for a lot cheaper).
Here is a much more neutral take – https://www.investopedia.com/managing-wealth/hedge-fund-over...
Lack of correlation can be very valuable even if the returns are mediocre to poor.
I don't remember or understand how it works, but I think I read once about how a fund manager claimed to be able to take more risk with the "long" part of a portfolio because of the uncorrelated "short" part, even though the returns of it were unimpressive.
So, if you have two different assets with the same expected value and same variance, but with zero correlation, then all mixtures of the two will have the same expected returns, but a 50/50 basket of the two assets will have 0.707 (1/sqrt(2)) times the variance of either of the two assets alone.
More generally, for a basket of non-correlated assets, a basket that maximizes expected returns divided by standard deviation of returns will never be 100% one asset. Returns are a linear function of the individual weights, but std. deviation of returns are a non-linear function. (This is true, regardless of statistical distribution of the random variables, as long as std. deviation is well-defined... no assumptions about normal distribution are involved.)
1) Portfolio size, 2) low market correlation, 3) above market performance.
Choose two. You cannot have all three.
Similarly, to get the same about of return with much less volatility is just as difficult. It's why people were so willing to put money into Bernie Madoff's ponzi scheme, and why his years of steady returns with very little volatility turned out to be too good to be true.
It's always possible to lose money. One obvious way was to say "I'm not panicking, there's no reason to panic" as the market crashed and capitulate right as it hit bottom, and spend the rest of the year saying "why is the market going up, it makes no sense, the world is ending".
It's easy to second guess yourself. Suppose you were entirely invested in biotechnology for several years prior to covid. Surely that is a good position to be in. After over a year, in retrospect, it is. But in the initial selloff, biotech crashed with everything else. Psychologically, how do you react? Do you say to yourself, everybody (the market) is wrong? Or are you conditioned to think the market knows better than almost any individual. The market was wrong as it turned out. I mean, covid treatment and vaccines are not gold mines for the private sector in themselves, thank god, but the pandemic is obviously driving and will continue to drive a realization of how important biotechnology is in general.
>their standard 2% of assets/20% of profits annual fee structure is absurd
I wonder when that became the "standard". Before I heard of the term "hedge fund", I heard of people charging 1% and 10%. Like in the early 80s.
A joke I heard (not sure if apocryphal) was someone naive asked "if you charge 10% of the profits, does that mean you give back 10% of the losses?" The answer: "Oh, no, that would be unprofessional"
> that is what hedge funds are designed for. In an era where you can buy pretty much any security for free with a few clicks, their standard 2% of assets/20% of profits annual fee structure is absurd
I don't understand, you seem to imply that any decent hedge fund makes obscene amounts of money, but if they did, then high fees would not be absurd - problem is, they mostly don't.
And I’m pretty sure 2/20 was already a common fee structure on Wall Street before Buffett started his partnership.
I've often heard people say hedgies are just levered beta. Well, that's obviously not true as we've seen indices outperform. Some of the best long/short investors have been absolutely wrecked in the post 2008 QE environment (QEternity) because price discovery is meaningless. The Fed is in the driver's seat, and the managers who have killed it had one simple thesis: the Fed has your back, so BTFD. Front running the Fed has been the best and easiest strategy for over a decade now. And it will continue to be so until it isn't...
> maxi long risk assets
I think you mostly mean "own assets", but would like to understand this phrase precisely.
Risk assets = anything but the dollar or bonds
Basically buy assets which (they believe) stimulate the economy more by either lowering financing costs (“the hunt for yield”) or through wealth effects (“my portfolio is up 50%, I’ll spend/consume more now”)
> Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater Associates and Jim Simon’s Renaissance Technologies ... each suffered negative double-digit returns in their main funds in 2020. Similarly, some of the industry’s most highly regarded names such as AQR, Two Sigma, and Dimensional Fund Advisors all suffered massive investor redemptions in the face of substantial underperformance in 2020.
coughs in Wirecard, anything related to tourism, and Melvin Capital / Citadel
Jokes about fraud empires and short squeezes aside - the fact that the stock markets have prospered despite many millions of people losing whatever tiny remaining savings they had, their homes, their freedom, their jobs, their health and in way too many cases their lives is disturbing in itself. A market that decoupled from reality is dangerous.
> In an era where you can buy pretty much any security for free with a few clicks, their standard 2% of assets/20% of profits annual fee structure is absurd.
There is no such things as "buying securities for free". As a retail investor you're still paying something: your data, to offer hedge funds a way to front run your orders and to make them profits.
There absolutely was a crisis. Perhaps several, depending on how you break up the time period.
The crises were very short lived and did not have much long term impact but, make no mistake: the VIX shooting to almost 90, oil pricing dropping below zero and continued instability in the repo market / money market rates ... those were all crises and they were, indeed, global.
is quite wrong really. The efficient market hypothesis implies market prices correctly discount the future and so you can't make money by figuring they are too high or too low. You still have a buyer and seller even if the prices are stupid.
First of all, this is broadly untrue. It's really only true for a certain set of meme stocks, but that's because the market allows for fun stupidity. But just because the market allows for fun stupidity, doesn't mean the mechanism doesn't work wherever there is an absence of fun stupidity.
Also, the status quo is arguably not a "market", at least as the efficient-market hypothesis defines it. Fed monetary policy basically breaks the usual flight-to-safety mechanism by providing no other alternative than to park capital in equities due to inflation and low interest rates (QE, basically). Additionally, Fed bailouts of junk bonds essentially removes all downside risk associated with risky assets while preserving the outsized reward; effectively guaranteeing stupid prices for certain assets.
He says this as though it's a meaningful conclusion to draw, even though earlier in that same article he wrote that 2020 was "the industry’s best year of gains in a decade."
I am not much of an e-reader and prefer physical objects but I do subscribe to the kindle version of The New Yorker and find it pleasing to consume in that way.
I think it's $1.99/mo or something ? You couldn't spend a better two bucks ...
That said, I agree that journalism deserves to be paid for, and even the price I mentioned above (about $2.30/issue) is very reasonable.
Yes, indeed - very reasonable. Again, I don't like the idea of reading on the kindle but somehow it works just fine, aesthetically, with this particular magazine...
Matt Levine (Bloomberg’s extraordinary finance opinion writer / jokester) had a pretty good articulation of this in a recent post about GameStop and Melvin Capital (https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-01-28/knowin...):
“The point of the stock market is to Enable Price Discovery or Encourage Capital Formation or something boring like that. Stock markets exist so that companies can raise money to fund their projects, and so that the smartest analysts of companies can work diligently and compete fiercely to put the proper value on those companies so that we as a society can know what projects are most valuable. Stock markets exist so that regular people can invest their savings in those companies, making everyone better off: Companies get funding to pursue socially beneficial projects; regular people get an ownership stake in economic growth. Or whatever.
This theory has some obvious flaws in its real-life application, but it’s a decent theory. It is, if not exactly true, true-ish; it describes the fundamental underpinnings of the market if not necessarily its everyday operation. It posits a social purpose for financial markets, beyond making funny memes on Reddit.
It is just the case, just inevitably the case, that if you are going to have financial markets that are optimized for those purposes—that are liquid and complete, that attract smart people, that are open to everyone—they are also going to have a certain amount of nonsense. It’s not like WallStreetBets invented financial nonsense! Financial-market nonsense is, like, 70% of what we talk about around here on a normal day. How many times have I written about hedge funds tricking each other using credit default swaps? Financial markets exist to foster price discovery and capital formation, but the way they do that is mostly by letting smart people mess with each other all day. WallStreetBets is a new class of smart people messing, quite effectively, with the old ones.”
This is said a a lot but surely things like it just exist, and any purpouses we assign are stories. The majority of the effect on the world of the stock market seems to be what happens with existing stocks and not IPOs & share issues.
“In talking about GameStop, I have occasionally tried to tie the goofy stock-price dynamics to corporate finance. I suggested that maybe GameStop could sell stock at these absurd prices and use the money to, you know, be a better company. It’s tricky, selling stock at these prices, but in theory that’s what the prices are for: People are telling you that they want to buy your stock to fund your projects, so you might as well sell them the stock and do the projects.
AMC has done that! On Monday it announced that it had raised $506 million of equity (and another $411 million of debt) in various transactions that “should allow the company to make it through this dark coronavirus-impacted winter.” Good work. Even better, that same day AMC launched an at-the-market offering to sell up to 50 million shares into the market at prevailing prices, allowing it to sell opportunistically to any redditors who wanted to buy. Yesterday it announced that it had finished the offering and raised $304.8 million from that and a previous stock sale, at an average price of about $4.80 a share. Of course yesterday the stock closed at $19.90, so AMC would have done better to wait a day, but nobody’s perfect. When redditors are clamoring to buy your stock you should sell it to them before it’s too late; there’s no reason for the company to try to time the endgame perfectly.
Also yesterday holders of $600 million of AMC convertible bonds converted them into stock at a conversion price of $13.51 per share. Six hundred million dollars of debt, vaporized by Reddit enthusiasm. “In the absence of significant increases in attendance from current levels, there is substantial doubt about our ability to continue as a going concern for a reasonable period of time,” AMC warned investors on Monday; four days and a billion dollars later, there is somewhat less doubt. A week ago it was not crazy to think this company was doomed; now it is entirely possible that it will survive and thrive and show movies in movie theaters for decades to come because everyone went nuts and bought meme stocks this week. Capital formation!”
GMC had not, and was in a quiet period. Not so great timing.
I don't know all the forms that companies file to issue stock in the US, but I think S-1 and S-8 are a couple of them. Lots of these are constantly filed with the SEC.
Yesterday, Monday, there were:
40 S-1s (or amendments) which are registrations for issuing securities.
23 S-8s (which I believe are registration of securities used to pay employees).
11 F-1s (which are for foreign issuers of securities)
12 S-6s (which are for unit trusts issuing securities)
At this rate, say there are 260 business days in a year, 86 x 260 = 22,360. I vaguely think that the total number of public companies in the US is like a quarter of that, so issuing stock appears to be a pretty common thing.My gut feeling is that despite being common, issuing stock is still peanuts compared to the old stock trades/dividends.
The ratio of stock traded to stock issued can be anything from zero to infinity.
We could imagine having "high frequency trading" of car loans producing a huge volume and it wouldn't change the fact that the car loans exist because people need transportation.
The amount of money corporate America raises from initial and secondary offerings in the stock market is negligible relative to corporate bonds, lines of credit, bank loans etc. Companies don't raise money from the stock market in any real sense. It has been this way since World War II (and possibly before).
edit: changed the unit from billions to millions.
Pension funds - and similar - can easily be moved to ETFs and other asset classes without the management fees from these funds.
Hedge funds and related investment vehicles aren't for most people, but they do perform an important function in the markets. Not everyone can invest passively -- someone has to actually enable price discovery.
It would be foolish in my opinion to just replace an entire pension fund portfolio with a couple ETFs. This isn't to say the pension funds are doing a good job (I don't think they are) in their allocation, but to say that everyone should just take out all of their money from hedge funds and put them into ETFs is irresponsible and not something any large investor would ever consider.
On the most simple level - ETFs and passive investments only work because they "invest along" with the rest of the market. With the rest of the market being the active investors, of which the large institutional ones make the most impact.
If they weren't there - then the passives would stop working. The dynamics take a while to visualize but think about the word - passive implies you're following someone who's active. My metaphor for this is water-skiing. The water-skier is MUCH more efficient than the boat that's towing them. However it would be wrong to think that the world would be a better place if everyone just had the skis and nobody had boats - w/o boats, the people are back to having generate their own energy (trading ideas/analysis) and we're back in the worse spot.
Then - on the very concrete level - there's a LOT of state teachers, firemen, policemen, etc. that are able to give their pensioners the what they promised them only because they made wise investments in funds that worked their asses off to provide returns required for that.
Their sympathy for Melvin Capital despite said “fund” seeking to make money by sinking American companies into the ground via massive “short” positions, as with GameStop, is just disgusting.
You don’t have to put others “down” to be “up”. There’s a way for us all to win. We certainly don’t need hedge funds to help us accomplish that.
EDIT:
“How they did it”:
Melvin Capital purchased substantial volume of short positions (many billions), collaborated with Wall St on how to best design the downfall of a business employing thousands during a pandemic, and even put out fake news articles & tweets to fool the Reddit mob out of fooling themselves. Did not work out in the end.
(No, I do not agree with Reddit’s current valuation. It is merely a remnant of the whole GME fiasco.)
He's saying he doesn't think the market price for GME will hold, a position I happen to agree with. Might be more juice left in the rollercoaster, but I'm not buying it.
Can you elaborate on how this is done? Did Melvin driving the stock price down empty GameStop's coffers or something?
And I haven’t seen any evidence Melvin did anything unethical either. They got too deep into their position and paid a huge price for it. It’s about time Redditers stopped taking victory laps over Melvins mangled body.