Long term? Probably not smart.
Safe to get in now? Debatable, pretty high risk.
But if you have a bunch of coins laying around and you're willing to gamble a bit longer...
There is no such thing as house money.
I see the 'house money' fallacy all the time (most commonly in the context of 'take out your initial investment').
Can you explain further, because it sounds weird to me?
The idea is that you shouldn't think "I already have some bitcoins, may as well let them ride" but instead think "Would it be better to have bitcoins or dollars?" And then, whatever your answer and current assets are, reposition yourself so you're consistent with your beliefs.
If you have a bitcoin that you bought for 10 dollars and you hold on to it even though you believe the price will likely fall because you think you'll still be able to sell above 10 dollars, that's a fallacy in the sense that you'd probably make the most money basing your decisions only on what you think is likely to happen and not what the original cost of your assets was.
Saying that the history of your investing shouldn't impact your choices is saying that your total wealth shouldn't affect your choices.
But if I borrowed $100K against my home and it gets foreclosed and I'm homeless, that's very different from if I gambled $100 and got $100K whose loss will be no worse for me than losing the original $100.
A = Bob has $1M in bitcoin.
B = Bob can afford to lose $1M.
How about:
A = Bob has $1M in bitcoin which he paid $100 for.
B = Bob has $1M in bitcoin which he paid $1M for.
C = Bob can afford to lose $1M.
The institutional thesis is massively overblown. And retail isn’t piling in like in 2017.
So professionals were making money while it was >BTC, until they overdid it and the premium went away.
It seems reasonable to be patient because there's just a lot of lag in the system as it's currently set up.
If you've ever paid attention to closed-end funds, you might have noticed how they can trade substantially over or under asset value for quite a while, but not forever.
The article I read that called it arbitrage described it like this:
"[Hedge funds] borrow Bitcoin, deposit the coins with GBTC in exchange for shares that are more valuable than the coins they bought, and they pocket that profit by selling the marked-up shares after a six-month lockup period expires."
Unlike an ETF though, the shares can't be destroyed. And suddenly the premium went away, so probably some of the people who were counting on it to remain have quit now.