And yet, the police all claim that criminals are dumb, and wait for them to do something that gets them caught. That's one of the basic investigation tactics--wait for the criminal to screw up.
Because all the ones they catch are dumb. There’s no information on how many are smart
It’s not an issue of smart vs. dumb. It’s that the cops can screw up infinitely without consequence (yesterday US cops shot a 1 year old baby in the head... nothing will happen to any of them) while the criminals have to be perfect and get busted on the first mistake. That asymmetry is why idiot cops who could barely graduate high school routinely bust even skilled criminals.
> the police all claim that [...]
Yes, because if this wasn't true they would look bad.