Where else would they go, at this point? I don't know of any competitors that are live and able to target Facebook refugees. Diaspora is still in Alpha, for example, and I suspect that the buzz on that one has been fading for some time.
Yeah, I'm not sure there's really such a thing as a "Facebook refugee" yet. That is, someone who leaves Facebook and is looking for something better. My guess is that those leaving Facebook are those saying "This whole thing is dumb", and are not looking to continue to engage in online social networking... at least in the way it's been presented so far.
Anecdotal: yes, that's exactly the thinking of my friends and I who have given up Facebook. It's turned us off the very concept.
Flickr and meetup, or similar services. Sharing photos and organizing events are pretty much the only real uses for FB in any case.