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Comment by geerlingguy | Hacker News Reader

Regarding component shortages:

'Quoting the words of a factory head we work with: “I haven’t seen anything like this in the 15 years that I’ve been in the business.”'

When will we get back to a status quo, or is "2+ years unless you're a multi-billion-dollar company" the new status quo for sourcing things now?

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Unless something significant changes, I think 2+ years is looking a lot more like the status quo.

The problem is that fabrication plants are hella expensive to tool. That's why there are so few companies worldwide that can participate.

I remember starting to have trouble placing seasonal orders for dc power supplies 4 years ago - this isn’t going away anytime soon. There is an opportunity here for someone/some group with deeeeeep pockets and some vision. Unlike a risky biotech, you know the tech is good and the market is there, this is a supply problem (all the way down to mining).

So this didn't used to be a problem but now it's a problem that only someone with deep pockets and vision can take on? What happened? Genuinely curious.

Demand went up to more than existing factories can make. It takes deep pockets to build a factory.

I don't know if it is a good business though. It's is hard to be sure if demand is high enough to support a factory or if you get a dozen orders and then demand is met.

I wonder if this could be the thing that drives on-shoring in the west.

Considering current demand and lights-out automation, I wouldn't be surprised this becomes more of a thing. Apple's not going to do it, but something like Pine64 or similar will beat them to the punch.

Someone like Pine64 will make it work, then Apple will "invent" it and add another trillion in market cap for doings do... /s

Just wait to the cold war with China really gets started and you can't buy anything from there at all!

We’ve been hearing about Chip shortages for awhile now, but this was the first first-party explanation I’ve seen. I think these monthly updates really helps to add some inside perspective on hardware manufacturing. Even if you don’t buy Pine64 products, these are super interesting to read.

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