> Then a select few run off with their bags of real money while the rest of us take the hit.
What you seem to be describing here, precisely, sounds like the Cantillon effect (which wouldn't happen in a bitcoin-based economy, actually).
What you seem to be describing here, precisely, sounds like the Cantillon effect (which wouldn't happen in a bitcoin-based economy, actually).
After seeing the after math in 2013 and 2017, I'm really spooked about how Bitcoin is being somewhat interwoven into index funds, and this trend could potentially continue as more institutional money gets on the gravy train.
This is because you're still measuring bitcoin's value in terms of fiat unit of account. If goods & services were already priced in bitcoin (something that might happen at some point), then what you would think is volatile is fiat currency. Not to mention that there have been studies already that forecast bitcoin's volatility to be going down over time and it will reach parity with normal currencies soon (e.g. https://medium.com/@silvestrimichela.s/is-btc-volatility-goi... )
Banning cryptocurrency itself would be very foolhardy (because how do you ban source code?), but what governments could do is prohibit exchanges from operating in their home countries, thus deterring any growth in mind-share amongst the peanut gallery, and even leading to a drop in the price per BTC. All they need to do is hamstring it for the vast majority of people. Diehards may continue to use BTC, but the allure would diminish greatly thereafter.
And, say if you decide to go around traditional exchanges and use more underground methods to attain your home currency of choice, I'm sure the tax agency will get very suspicious about the massive windfall you got that you can't properly explain away.
Climate change being what it is, I would be shocked if governments don't start cracking down on this sooner.
Not sure if you're living under a rock, but Coinbase IPO is about to happen. You think they would kibosh anything after so many financial interests depend on BTC? I remind you that even Tesla already went in.
> what governments could do is prohibit exchanges from operating in their home countries
This is the typical FUD argument of government regulation, which everybody is scared about it but: 1) it never happens or 2) if it happens, it happens slowly in some odd countries here and there (which doesn't affect BTC at all unless all governments together decided to ban it, because right now if X country bans it, the other ones are seen as more tech-innovative, e.g. see Japan which is positioning itself as the hub of the future of DeFi).
> I'm sure the tax agency will get very suspicious about the massive windfall you got that you can't properly explain away.
Most people are using P2P & DEX exchanges more, so the surveillance possibilities are getting reduced. Note, I'm not advocating for tax evasion, everyone should pay their taxes, but actually having to pay capital gains deter people from selling, which makes actually the price to not go down (and after your BTC appreciates you can benefit from that without selling, e.g. borrowing against it, or buying small things with bitcoin here and there).
> Climate change being what it is, I would be shocked if governments don't start cracking down on this sooner.
BTC is not environmentally-unfriendly, this point has been long-debunked: see https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25320652 (and even if it wasn't debunked, there are cryptocurrencies which don't have PoW: PoS or PoST don't use so much electricity).