"The odds are low with distancing and closed nightclubs" is a weird argument for packed nightclubs being safe.
I looked it up, in 2019 there were 89 million 20-39 years olds in the U.S. [0], and 7000 ages 18-39 died dies of covid19 [1]. Mathematically that works out to 1 in 12,714, and would be a bit higher were 18-19 years added to the denominator. I didn't mean to exaggerate this number.
You mentioned family in vulnerable groups. Lets grant common sense, that someone who lives with their Grandparent's isn't going to go clubbing? EDIT: People need to use common sense, and they seem to, even in when they are not being forced.
I wish that we could measure the effectiveness of mitigations. This may be your strongest counterpoint. I end up extrapolating worst case numbers sometimes. I'd love to see you come up with a worst case number. I've got the feeling we could agree on a number, but still might disagree on how we react to that number.
Every weekend the beach bars near the Florida city I'm located in are busy. The majority of people are not wearing masks, sometimes almost nobody, sometimes that includes staff. Some places, with DJs and bands, are literally packed shoulder to shoulder as the night wears on. Like it was 2019 again!
I've also been in NY for part of the pandemic, and keep up with my circle there. As far as I know it's like you said, the Florida beach bar scene would not be tolerated. The rules are a bit stricter in NY, better enforced, with less exceptions, with more state backing.
So why are per capita covid19 deaths higher in NY than in Florida? Florida has 1500 deaths per million, and NY has 2500. [2]
EDIT: I was replying to your points, and don't mean to sidetrack us. Perhaps we need to back up? Do you think it is unreasonable for a young person to go clubbing under any circumstances at the moment? IS a definite 1-2+ years of restrictions worth avoiding a small possible (1/1000 at worst?) chance of harm.
[0] https://www.statista.com/statistics/241488/population-of-the...
[1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-...
Our recent history does not make me feel comfortable granting that.
> Do you think it is unreasonable for a young person to go clubbing under any circumstances at the moment?
I think it's unreasonable for local governments to permit said club to be open in the first place.
> So why are per capita covid19 deaths higher in NY than in Florida? Florida has 1500 deaths per million, and NY has 2500.
NYC got hit at the very beginning, before we'd settled on how to effectively treat, and before most of the mitigation was in place. Peaked at over a thousand deaths a day.
https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2021/feb/26/instagram-...
I'm not sure what to do with the idea of the someone who would willingly expose their Grandmother. Some grandmothers don't care. Some care a lot and won't take any chances. Most young people don't live with their grandmother's. I wouldn't go clubbing if I lived with my grandmother. When I'm visiting other people I'm sure to let them know about any recent exposure I've had, allowing them to decide if they're comfortable.
Maybe we should return to the main question of this thread, so we don't stray too far: Is it reasonable for young healthy people (who don't live with vulnerable people) to go out clubbing?
Given the numbers (7000 out of 89+ million 19-39 year olds have died in the country), my answer is still "yes!"
Another way of looking at it (for young people): Young people are 20x more likely to die of something besides covid [2]. Nobody thinks it's reasonable to hide from those other things, do they?
I'm in a different demographic, my odds aren't as good as those of an 18-39 year old, and I'm still comfortable going out and ignoring the pandemic when the urge strikes and I'll have a good time. I've paid close attention to the numbers, and only 1 in 600 people have died from this so far, tending to be older and with existing health issues. So my odds are even better than 1 in 600.
You may look at the same numbers and asses the risks differently. Everyone's entitled to their opinion, and to isolate as they see fit.
Perhaps a better way to continue this conversation would be to agree on some numbers, then discuss why we look at the numbers differently?
[0] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/new-york/ [1] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/ [2] https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Deaths-Counts...