It seems like the incentives are getting worse. Things like DeFi are moving money around, but is that finance actually enabling anything to be built that improves the world other than more financial instruments?
Right now it looks like the crypto space is capitalism at its most extremely negative. All the downsides - exponential increase in consumption of natural resources, money making money without adding value, wealth being accrued arbitrarily to those who happened to be in the right place and time, and seemingly none of the upsides - people being rewarded for solving human problems.
But, people are getting rich with GameStop? Maybe some. Some lost their shirts. They generated a lot of press, and the press made it look like everyone was getting insanely rich for nothing. But they were playing a very dangerous game, and many people lost enough to hurt.
Don't chase that. The odds are against you getting life-changing money by finding the right place that will rain money on you. The odds are much better that you will find frustration because you can never get it to work, and that you will lose money trying.
Instead, you need to come to the place where you are OK with a highly-publicized small minority of other people making significant money for stupid reasons. Yes, you didn't get that. Go build a life for yourself anyway.
The January event piqued my interest into trading as a hobby so I've done a fair amount of research. My thinking around it is investing could be side-hustle kinds of profit without the customer support, marketing, and other non-engineering parts of doing a technical side-hustle like building apps, doing freelance work or building a SaaS product.
Like any engineer, I want to understand how things work (aka over analyze everything) and there are a lot of forces at play in the GameStop situation which make it a fun problem to look into. There is a massive shortage of stock available, surging interest from retail traders and thousands of options contracts in the money every week creating more buying pressure. I could bore you with a lot of detail on these things.
People say don't invest anything you can't lose, but the market is not a slot machine. Properly researching companies, buying stock and tracking it is not that risky. Especially not if you have an exit strategy to minimize losses and maximize gains.
The potential is the current volatility. If you're buying GME for $200 there's no long term potential unless they turn into a completely different business than they are today, potentially having nothing even to do with gaming. Which I suppose is possible but I think its unlikely.
All of the suggested pivots I've heard don't sound viable to me. People want them to be tournament organizers and make money off of that. Doesn't seem to be profitable unless you're a game dev company with at least one massive hit or a streaming platform, or one of the established players. People suggested they focus on digital distribution of games, so how does one accomplish that? Either with a store or a launcher. They already have a store that sells digital game codes and its getting killed by bigger and vastly better competitors. If you want to make a successful launcher, once again, you have to have at least one big hit that makes people actually want to install yet another launcher. People suggested they get involved with luxury gaming goods like peripherals, chairs, etc. The GME name isn't exactly synonymous with a luxury experience so I'm not sure how that works out either. Before it became a meme and a bunch of /r/wsb guys started pretending they thought it was a good company they were universally hated for shitty customer service, shitty treatment of their employees, and for giving people like $5 for a used game and then turning around and selling it for in some cases like 50 cents below retail for a new copy.
For people that think they are going to transform, what in your opinion can they do to actually become profitable?
Also, note that when deepvalue started promoting GME he didn't believe it could turn around and thought that the industry's transition to digital was going to be slower than most thought (based on an extensive analysis of their fundamentals and history of sales). He basically bought in because he thought they had a few good years left before the decline. Now he is saying he thinks its a good company that will survive. I just don't see it.
Ethics aside, you cannot judge the quality of a decision by the result -- when judging the quality of the decision you need to tease apart the contribution of skill, and the contribution of luck. Some people can get very rich by making bad decisions, taking a huge amount of risk, and getting lucky.
Philosophy offers some consolation:
> Mild success can be explainable by skills and labor. Wild success is attributable to variance.
> one cannot consider a profession without taking into account the average of the people who enter it, not the sample of those who have succeeded in it.
> Clearly, the quality of a decision cannot be solely judged based on its outcome, but such a point seems to be voiced only by people who fail.
> The reader can see my unusual notion of alternative accounting: $ 10 million earned through Russian roulette does not have the same value as $ 10 million earned through the diligent and artful practice of dentistry. They are the same, can buy the same goods, except that one’s dependence on randomness is greater than the other.
From Taleb's book fooled by randomness.
-- https://www.nateliason.com/notes/fooled-randomness-nassim-ni...
They can't. Between the speculation as input and the money on the other side as output there is a giant random number generation box.
- Everyone pretends that they understand how the box works.
- You're hearing only about the people that get more out of the box than they put back in.
- You're observing a time when the box is more favorable to a higher number of people. (It will eventually start keeping more than it gives back.)
Is there?
It seems like NFTs are much more about insiders creating a new market for suckers to enter.
Get out of HN and other social medias and talk to people in real life, don't focus too much on money as long as you can live comfortably (if you're in the west it's already 90% done) and enjoy your short time on this planet, there is more to life than getting rich
Hack your rent: Live with family, arbitrage the dollar by moving to developing country with cheap rent, or house hack.
Hack your income: Work for yourself instead of others. Do what you enjoy, do what’s fun, on your own terms, and you won’t be wasting time for a paycheck.
Work is about finding a meaningful way of living your life, of creating something or giving something you can be proud of. If you just do it for money, you already fell prey for the bad parts of human greed and status games. This has nothing to do with other people.
All you see is finance in the open. This happens, far worse, for so long. DeFi just makes it accessible for the average Joe and so you read about it on Reddit. Just like HackerNews can fuck your mind and think there is always a smarter person (there is), DeFi just shows there are always people making money easier than you.
There is a limit to money and happiness. Sure, if you want to be financial independet, stop working, get into DeFi, this is a rare once in a century opportunity to hold your hands open while hedge funds are pouring money into a new system.
Money or wealth won‘t make you happy. Family, friends and purposful „work“ does.
I'm definitely doing that part wrong...
Read Taleb.
The Dow Jones went from a peak of about 16,000 to a low of about 11,000. Interest rates did go up briefly but not for long.
If you think you can just invest or sell some NFT for millions, do it. Why wouldn’t you?
Search for these niches and loopholes that “rain money” and in the mean time, keep a job around.
It's high again. I dare you to buy some right now, while it's still high.
Being rich and lying on the beach all day seems more meaningful than my current life which is 8h/day of other people's problems with a bag of money attached, plus a few hours of tired clicking around. Rinse and repeat ad nauseum until I die.
Sitting on the beach wondering if my life has meaning doesn't seem so bad.
Instead of playing zero-sum games, do something productive and useful with your life.
Gambling with stonks and crypto is for those of us with low risk aversion and plenty to risk.
https://simple.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alienation_(Marxism)
Try to find meaning in other parts of your life than labour. I like cooking for friends, growing plants and experiencing other worlds via cinema.
How are we supposed to get a mortgage? If during this pandemic where some housing prices go down but got snatched by Boomers for another investment.
Crypto it is.
On a side note, WFH due to covid lockdowns is a rare opportunity for millennials to quickly pay off student loans. It's also a rare opportunity to cut carbon emissions.
It's too bad it won't last after covid is over since there's more money to be made from the destruction of the environment along with your mental health.