What in your opinion is the optimal way to run "a couple dozen ec2 instances"?
I'm kind of in that zone.
I don't think "totally manually" works out very well once you are in even "one dozen EC2 instances", it's too easy to make mistakes, you spend too much time (with downtime) figuring out what mistake you made and what it was supposed to be instead. Generally too hard to orchestrate changes without downtime.
But is there anything in between totally manual and kubernetes?
I think that's one reason people are reaching for kubernetes, they actually are having challenges that need a solution, and can't figure out what the solution is other than kubernetes.