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Comment by melomal | Hacker News Reader

> After extensive, long-term, high-quality studies of the effects of (mid- to low-level) radiation on populations after Chernobyl

Ever heard of the Chernobyl babies born in Poland and Ukraine? My wife happens to be in that category and safe to say she has plenty of similar issues to other people in the same 'category'. Thyroid issues are a serious problem for many young women around here and it cannot be a coincidence.

But I still do believe that nuclear is the way forward without doubt though. Just that these studies seem to be way off with the ongoing effects.

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I have no doubt, that in the over 30 years after Chernobly hundreds of thousands of children were born with birth defects in Poland and Ukraine, many of them severe. Which is tragic. And has nothing to do with Chernobyl. Because roughly 6% of all babies born around the world have birth defects (https://www.nature.com/scitable/topicpage/birth-defects-caus...). As a parent, I can understand the impulse to attribute such a senseless act of nature to some outside, "evil" force. But the statistics just don't show any meaningful connection.

This isn’t a meaningful comparison unless the pre Chernobyl birth defect rate in Poland and Ukraine was at least as high as the global one. I doubt that, because among other reasons there are high population countries with a long history of close cousin marriages that almost certainly have significantly higher birth defect rates than Eastern Europe pulling the global rate up.

>This isn’t a meaningful comparison unless the pre Chernobyl birth defect rate in Poland and Ukraine was at least as high as the global one.

Even then there will be confounding effects. People are, generally, richer now than pre-Chernobyl. They will, generally, have better access to better healthcare.

Citations and figures immediately, please, specifically relating to cousin marriage in those countries together with evidence that they “cause significantly higher birth defect rates...pulling the global rate up.”

I grew up in an impacted area; you might call it downwind of Chernobyl. My mother had thyroid cancer at a young age and now had no thyroid. Numerous female relatives as well as friends and acquaintances have experienced similar problems and those are all associated with Chernobyl.

Here’s a single scientific source. There are more, but I’m sure you’re eager to demonstrate your hypothesis that women in Eastern Europe are getting cancer not from industrial accidents but from cousin marriage.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6535271/

Exactly! I can cite 5+ women here in Poland who I know that all have thyroid related issues. Not blood related to each other but born close to each other. As far as I can tell no one is humping their cousin...

My mum died when she was 36 because she had spent a couple of years working in a battery production factory in LT. I remember visiting her too! The amount of cancer, the locations of it and the aggressiveness of the growths found in her pointed to the simple fact that she was exposed to incredibly harsh chemicals. But it could be blamed on X, Y, Z if need be but this is the reality of it.

Cousin marriages and cancer? Wow.

yeah but I also know about 4 or 5 women in australia that all have thyroid issues. and none have been anywhere near any known major sources of radiation.

Thyroid issues are super common. Might be related but also may very well not be.

Reread parent comment more carefully. You got it backwards.

I’m sorry, I must not have your understanding of reading. Could you do me the favor of elucidating what you’re getting at?

They’re suggesting that other areas (not near Chernobyl) have higher than typical rates from more close-relative interbreeding, which pulls the global average up relative to the more distant breeding pairing near Chernobyl.

(I’m not taking a position either way as I have no data, but they’re clearly not accusing Chernobyl neighbors of mating with cousins.)

The comment was about thyroid diseases, not birth defects. Thyroid carcinoma is linked to radiation exposure.

There are also studies related to increased birth defect rates, but it's harder to conclude anything there, as birth defects can be caused by alcohol consumption, malnutrition, vitamin deficiencies.

The UN says 4000 cases of childhood thyroid cancer, out of which nine died. They also estimate 4000 eventual cancer deaths among the most-exposed population, an increase of 3%.

https://www.un.org/press/en/2005/dev2539.doc.htm

Chernobyl was an exceptionally unsafe reactor, and didn't have a containment dome. Fukushima did have decent containment and didn't release nearly as much radiation.

I did not claim, that it's causing a lot of deaths, I said that it's been linked to the radiation. Thyroid cancer is not fun, even if you survive it. The treatment and followup is a financial burden (on the person or the society, if there is public healthcare), not to mention the big scar that you will have on your throat.

Chernobyl was also unique in producing a shit load of dirty, radioactive fall out. This is still lingering in our soil, e.g. in Bavaria wild boar has to be checked for radiation. They are eating enough mushrooms to accumulate radiation levels basically turning them into radioactive, hazardous waste. Other regions are not at all affected by this.

An increase in thyroid cancer is the main single cause of fatalities (of people not involved in the cleanup) in the Chernobyl Forum report and don't get me wrong: The last thing I wish on anyone is to experience to go through cancer or have a child diagnosed with cancer, even if it is one with 99% survival rate. As I said: nuclear power is dangerous, its just by far not as dangerous as its made out to be. And the hysteria itself can have dire consequences. In Western Europe there were an estimated 100 - 200 thousand excess abortions due to fear of birth defects in the aftermath of Chernobyl. That's by orders of magnituds more than the fatalities actually caused by the incident (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1248180/?page=1).

Hindsight is 20/20. There was conflicting data and false rumours all around, I suspect that in May 1986 a lot of doctors were not so confident either about the consequences.

A factor to consider is the radiation from mining and pollution of coal, the primary energy fuel used by Poland as a replacement for nuclear. Radon and coal ash is directly linked with thyroid carcinoma.

I remember reading that areas around coal-fired plants would fail nuclear plant radiation standards, as radioactive soot settles around them. Can’t find the source but can well believe it.

Chernobyl is an extreme outlier caused by a very specific mix of bad technologies that no reactors use anymore.

There are still many RBMK reactors running today. No NEW reactors would use that design though.

A quick search showed 9 (or ten, depends on the list) active RBMK reactors, mostly younger ones.

Yeah, my bad! I thought I had heard they had all been decommissioned recently.

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