SpaceX reveals the grand extent of its starport plans in South Texas
arstechnica.com
arstechnica.com
At the rate SpaceX is moving at, they may have the world's largest orbital launch system by the end of the year. That's not even "Elon-time" anymore, it's totally within reason that they could have their first orbital Starship launch this year.
When Starship becomes commercially viable, things are going to change fast for the space industry. And that little Starbase in Boca Chica is going to be a busy place.
(And in the meantime, we get to watch all the explody tests, which is excellent entertainment!)
I think "Shotwell" time is generally much closer to 1:1 time than Elon time.
But I agree, Starship has a fairly plausible path to being orbital by the end of the year.
It was a wildly unrealistic estimate to begin with that characterizes "Elon time" as a concept. Starship development has been blindly fast, and even still is a maybe on getting to orbit this year.
I just don't think the pandemic pushed their timeline back significantly. I could be wrong, but that's my take from the outside looking in
My hot take was that they skydiver maneuver and landing flip would be the hardest part for starship. They've actually done that part perfectly three times now, but haven't fully nailed the landing bit.
But the one thing that seems to be rock stable is the aerodynamic control in the belly-down flight phase. The only issues were with the soft landing phase and that was related to fuel and engine problems. So I am absolutely not worried that SpaceX is going to figure that out soon.
For me, there is only one big thing left to show: whether a starship with heat tiling can withstand the reentry.
I mostly agree with this.
I put both the landing flip maneuver and the heat-shield system on about the same level of difficulty for Starship.
I think they've worked through the hinkiest bits of the landing flip with SN10 (though with some raptor relight stability being potentially a long-ish tail of improving).
I'm curious to see how their heat-shielding mechanism works out. If they can built a heat shield system that works for orbital re-entry and is rapidly refurbishable, I'll be very happy that Starship will be able to meet the extreme goals SpaceX has created for it.
If you look at timeline when they started in Boca, they thought they could do hops way sooner.
But they decided not to do this, because their first priority was to get it to land, and they don't envision LEO launches using only the first stage. That will be in conjunction with the much larger second stage.
The bragging rights of being the first to achieve SSTO seem too tempting for Musk to ignore.
I hadn't heard about that. I know he's said that the Starship is theoretically _capable_ of SSTO w/ no payload, but I don't recall any suggestion from him that he'd test it.
Elon says a lot of things though, and I probably just missed it somewhere. Any chance you know where/when he said it?
Must have been others speculating on the Starship test plans.
Bit late for that. Falcon Heavy is already the world largest orbital lanunch system.
Actually, it will be the world largest orbital system ever. And on of the biggest flying machines in human history. Easily the most powerful.
Additional source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-02/musk-floa...
I know a lot of folks who haven't been to Brownsville will reflexively think that's a racist comment or something, but it isn't. The area is extremely poor with police/border checkpoints everywhere, the land is ugly, the humidity is horrible, and the mosquitoes are worse.
Just curious as a Canadian.
Yes, there's a combination of established locations and "surprise" locations where Border Patrol stops every car on the interstate.
> you...need to provide proof of residency or citizenship?
I don't think they can legally make you produce this unless they have reasonable suspension of a crime. Every time I've been through they have you roll down your window and ask if everyone in the car is a US citizen. Usually there are dogs on both sides of your vehicle while you're asked. I've never had any trouble or had to produce my license.
In this conversation, I only bring it up because I assume when most people see a large police presence, they're nervous that (a) there's probably a reason to need that many police, and (b) what if the police mistakenly believe I'm a criminal? It's just not a pleasant environment, even though I haven't ever been personally hassled at a checkpoint.
Check out the term "constitution free zone" if you want to learn more.
The dog they use around the car is to let them harass certain people based on what the dog handler thinks of them. https://health.ucdavis.edu/welcome/features/2010-2011/02/201...
Maybe, though I think it's fair to point out a large number of CPB agents on the border also have brown skin, if for no other reason than they need a huge percentage of native Spanish speakers.
Where it gets dicey is that they can stop you, but constitutionally they can't force you to produce documentation or detain you. But not many people actually know that, or can stomach saying no to federal officers, and so in practice they can.
It is a part of US law that has a great deal of grey area. The policy was retained under Obama and Trump expanded it although not really by very much. In general the abuses seem to be limited but that's not a great deal of consolation.
They can make life hard for you, search your car for drugs or illegals, harass you for your citizenship details. A scourge on our country - a true "show me you papers" place. I heard from non-white friends that they were a little afraid of being harassed. It was a living embodiment of unfair policing.
It looks like a commercial harbor/causeway for largish oil/gas ships, so the bridge might be a ways off.
You need a large number of workers, who can weld, move stuff around install stuff onto the rocket.
The most difficult to produce things, like the engine will be delivered.
There will still be a lot of engineers required, but maybe not as much as you would traditionally think.
There is also already a fair amount of heavy industry there so, its not like they are going to some total backwater.
https://www.businessinsider.com/spacex-rocket-engineers-isla...
1. Open ocean east from your site, because launching to the east adds velocity - this is the direction in which the Earth rotates, so free speed for you; and ocean is better than land, because no one lives on the ocean and the nearby waters can be closed during launches. If you launch over the sea and anything goes wrong with your rocket during ascent, at least it won't crash on anybody's head and home.
(Russians can afford launching over land, because the steppe is thinly populated and they had no qualms removing the nomads from around Baikonur.)
2. To be as close to equator as possible, because the boost that you get from Earth's rotation is multiplied by cosine of your latitude.
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That is why the French are so happy to have French Guyana. In the contiguous U.S., you only have two states that are suitable: Florida and Texas, both pretty far south and with open sea east of them. That is why the Kennedy Space Center is in Florida.
But real estate in Florida is more expensive than that in Texas and building a new cosmic base there would not only cost money, but bring hassle with the locals because it means sonic booms in the proximity of cities and villages.
Boca Chica is ideally suited for this purpose, fairly cheap land and not much population to speak of.
Middle of nowhere is a non charitable as well as non accurate characterization of the area. South Texas and Brownsville are huge in the oil and gas industry. The number and quality of industrial, large structure welders available made the area very intriguing from that perspective alone I wager.
In fact the facility as it exists today is actually quite benign; you should visit if you haven't. It's literally right off the road down there. You can almost touch Starhopper through the fence.
Isn't the latitude the most important characteristic?
[1] https://www.reddit.com/r/SpaceXLounge/comments/lzf9z7/propos...
https://twitter.com/Caspar_Stanley/status/136834862870895001...
Basically, I think they want to keep up the testing cadence without having to delay things due to maintenance. They say in one of the applications that there will be no more than about 10-12 orbital launches from Boca Chica per year.
So I don't think this can be a high flight rate facility.
Or is that not a concern? Anyone with more knowledge on the topic could share?
Given those requirements, there's no location that isn't vulnerable to hurricanes. Boca Chica actually doesn't get many hurricanes compared to Florida or further North on the Texas coast.
Not if you're Russia/China.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/26/chinese-rocket-crushes-house...
Russia is a bit different and they couldn't really move it further east because it would be to far from their industrial centers. They had a hell of a time transporting the Buran system to launch already.
https://space.stackexchange.com/questions/36283/negative-imp...
Southern Arizona would work, especially at high altitude. We used to do that, but moved to Florida after Mexico complained about debris crossing the border.
I get that people want to work the political angle here, but Boca Chica was definitely the best remaining place to launch rockets from continental US, no arguments from regulatory environment needed.
I have to imagine that even if weather wasn't a concern (again no idea here just enjoying the discussion) - it would cost pretty much the same to build and launch from the Gulf Coast, so long as you don't get hurricane-d, and you can launch year-round (can you launch in snow?).
Pads are generally flooded with water on every launch, starting shortly before the engines ignite. The water deluge system absorbs some of the energy of the rocket exhaust -- this reduces damage to both the pad and the rocket (from reflected sound).
Being on the cost is also nice because eventually they'll ship/fly the ships to the converted oil rig launch facilities.
edit: It was pointed out that the integration tower to the very bottom is a likely candidate.
This seems right as the proposed launch layout is slightly larger given the larger size of the booster.
Everything else is exciting to watch as well, it's just that in terms of "things that are completely novel", these two things (catching the booster, starship coming back from orbital launch), are at the top of my list. I can't wait to see the first stage go off with its full complement of engines as well. That's going to be straight up incredible.
1. it goes back to its launch area rather than merely going down as the Falcons do (why the Falcons need to land on a ship)
2. it's too heavy to get enough air resistance by falling vertically like the Falcons, so it does this amazing belly flop with a "flip and burn" at the last moment
If you are already doing a belly flop for reentry, you might as well do it all the way down to minimize the landing fuel penalty. For unmanned flights you can do it really late even if they crash at a low rate. I would expect manned flights to be less aggressive, especially near term.
AFAICT, thescriptkiddie is talking about an electrolysis plant to create hydrogen, and then a Sabatier plant to create methane from that hydrogen and atmospheric CO2 from the air liquidation stack.
This would not make sense economically, but they have two good reasons for doing this.
1: using a carbon-neutral fuel would be on-message for Elon Musk and would mitigate a major criticism of frequent spaceflight.
2: They're going to have to do something similar on Mars to create fuel for the return flight home. So doing it at scale on Earth first may help them debug the process before trying to do it on Mars.
It can be protected from exploding rockets by berms, concrete, etc. It isn't as if an exploding rocket is a shaped charge; the force of an explosion would go up and out and be easily deflected.