Stocks and Rising Rates – Quantifying the Bear Case

precern.com

unfortunately it is not clear to me which assets will hold value as stocks decline. it seems all risk assets trade together these days

It's a fair point. But some stocks can be more exposed than others.

Was mildly curious what the theory was, but giant paywall popup appeared to force signup. No thanks.

Author here. No payment, no signup. Just a clickwrap.

So I did pop back in and check it out. Sounds like an interesting framework for spec'ing out scenarios in a way that doesn't involve a ton of spreadsheets. Is this a formalization of some of those processes that you've spent time on in the past? This wants to be a "I wish I could review some of my portfolio around tail risk or weird DCF values without a weekend of effort", right?

Thanks for clarifying on the popup.

Thanks for reading! You are correct. The goal is a product that clients can use to pressure test their own portfolio against tail risks. I plan on building out more scenarios over time. If you have any topics you think would be good to cover next, let me know!

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