I know one of the authors personally and can try to forward on questions for anyone interested, though they have moved on from academic work so may have limited interest or context.
I know one of the authors personally and can try to forward on questions for anyone interested, though they have moved on from academic work so may have limited interest or context.
If I may ask, do you think the distribution of bitcoin will be somewhat equitable as we approach 2140?
And do you you think it will actually become a medium of exchange as originally hoped? Or will it remain a store of wealth only (as things currently seem to indicate)?
And if it indeed remains only a store of wealth, will said wealth be distributed relatively equally, or will we be left with a relatively small pool of large holders?
Just trying to wrap my mind around the long-term evolution of bitcoin - and your way of explaining the energy conundrum above makes me think you probably have good insight on this.
I'd value your opinion, thanks :)
However, someone could maybe do a 51% attack on bitcoin at some point. Maybe there is a unforeseen flaw in bitcoin. Maybe something better comes a long. It's impossible to know.
But I think there's a non-negligible chance that the theory of quantum mechanics will break down as we move to superpositions of 2^1024 classical states that must be faithfully represented with physical elements.
If the sha-256 algorithm was cracked such that BTC blocks could be solved instantly, the existing miners would have to choose between:
1. No more income, or
2. Adopt a quantum-resistant protocol.
Market economics being what they are, I think it's safe to assume that BTC would survive the "quantum apocalypse." There's too much money at stake for any other choice to be the logical outcome.
The problem is that Shor's algorithm breaks asymmetrical crypto used in the wallet signing, that means you can forge ownership of any transaction outputs, which would completely shatter confidence in the coin before they could migrate all ownership of all funds to a new post-quantum signature scheme, this problem is a lot harder to solve compared to a hash algorithm upgrade.
This is fantastically impossible.
It will about as stable as any other commodity plus the additional swings due to public stampedes one way or another, and the fact that there is no 'underlying value' to anchor the price (like Oil).
Feasibly, if exchange rates are razor thin (unlikely) then it might be possible buy milk and bread with BTC simply by doing the conversion on point, but that of course requires someone to do some 'investing math / intuition' every time they buy a stick of gum.
It can't be a functional currency, at least as it's designed.
And the notion that it consumes gigantic amounts of energy for no net value gained should have everyone up in arms.
Citation needed
> And the notion that it consumes gigantic amounts of energy for no net value gained should have everyone up in arms.
For what it's worth, bitcoin aims to deprecate every single brick-and-morter bank as well as all the armored trucks driving paper currency to and from them.
When you start to add up all of the energy that would be saved if bitcoin succeeds, the energy costs associated with mining start looking quite a bit smaller.
I literally just explained it to you.
The price of BTC has always been highly unstable. There is absolutely no evidence it will ever be stable, to the contrary in fact, all evidence points to the fact that it will remain unstable.
Every single commodity or currency extant to an economy is unstable relative to the currency of that economy. The only thing 'stable' in terms of USD are things closely tied to the managed USD.
Just the mere fact that it's highly unstable - all other things notwithstanding - make it impossible to be a currency.
"For what it's worth, bitcoin aims to deprecate every single brick-and-morter bank as well as all the armored trucks driving paper currency to and from them."
It's really bizarre that anyone would believe this.
Starting with the fact that 'digitization of currency' is already well under way and so there are no 'truck rolls' in the future.
But of course, the implication that banks only provide a 'place to store' money is completely false. Financial Services are an entire industry. Lending, transactions, authorizations, contracts, accounting, risk management, asset allocation, it's a gigantic industry.
But it's moot, BTC will be the same in 20 years that it is one, something to talk about.
Right, this is all on ethereum
There are many contenders. XTZ and ADA are both technologically far beyond what BTC or ETH can ever be.
Etc, etc. etc?
The complete lack of understanding of anything financial postulated by the crypto crowd is really painful.
The notion of 'crypto' is actually interesting, and large swaths of the financial world would actually buy into it, but most of it makes no sense unfortunately.
All I need is more than $100K worth of crypto assets I can tie up as collateral for my loan. So I'll be able to buy a car or a house, as long as I have more than enough money to do so already. Banks don't know about this one weird trick that makes them obsolete!
I am protected from losses of spending my BTC. As with all finance yes I also carry the risk of BTC falling and liquidating my loan - but assuming I have not also lost my loan I am protected from a major fall, as my collateral will be taken and I still have my loaned coins.
Is this supposed to be some joke? No it doesn't. Someone had to create a fork of Bitcoin called Bitcoin Cash just to increase the block size. You've had your chance and you blew it.
What's going to happen from now on is that Bitcoin will be absorbed by Visa, Mastercard and Paypal who build an actual payment layer on top of Bitcoin and then people will use Visa, Mastercard and Paypal as their bank. It's the Bitcoin you know and love that is going to die.
I don’t see why the distribution of anything would be “equitable”, outside of a communist utopia/dystopia. These days that word is mostly used by people exploiting the empathy of others to gain power for themselves.
I'll just add that some inequality is also a good thing. If you don't have differential outcomes then you don't have a meritocracy where "better" is rewarded. You have a system where everyone is equally poor like the USSR and there is no incentive to improve.
I more meant whether it will become a currency of the people. Or a store of wealth for the average person.
I'm looking at this through an African lens. Bitcoin showed a lot of promise for cheap and reliable remittance payments and one day a fully fledged currency for the masses. Gave us Africans lots of hope in many ways.
These days I worry it is increasingly growing more difficult to acquire. It's no longer destined to benefit the people.
I don't mean to imply that everyone deserves an equal share. I hope I'm making sense. I guess I'm more wondering about its overall accessibility long term.
Keep in mind as well that the protocol is mutable as long as people agree to change it.
Saying BTC is doomed to fail as it's living alongside a multitude of other cryptocurrencies that attempt to solve its shortcomings is also a dubious proposition to me. Take for example the Mina Protocol[0], which eschews proof of work, huge blockchains, and slow transaction speeds for solutions built on top of zk-SNARKs.
If BTC has value as a long-term store of wealth, and if other cryptocurrencies exist to transact at faster rates with more liquid capital, and if that capital can flow between systems freely (as fast at BTC will allow), then every system is working as designed, right?
Rather than having 50% distributed in just the first 4 years, and only crumbs in later decades.
Gold is much more like the former.
A stable store of value is always going to socially/psychologically encourage hoarding and other human traits that lead exactly back to inequal distributions of value ("wealth").
A truly egalitarian currency would need to focus on the velocity and acceleration (the current of the currency) curves far more than the value at rest, which likely would be an afterthought.
I can see using Bitcoin as a primary wealth store, similar to gold. I agree, it would have most the same social features, which seems problematic since none of that is really in line with Bitcoin's original political vision, but I'm not sure Bitcoin's original political vision is anything more than a piece of nostalgia cherished by people sitting on the periphery of the contemporary Bitcoin economy, anyway, so maybe that's no big deal.
The bigger problem I see with Bitcoin relative to something like gold is that it has some troubling practicalities. It's theoretically much easier to steal vast sums of Bitcoin in one go (because 1,000,000 BTC wouldn't be quite as subject to conservation of momentum as a tonne of gold bars would be), and it's definitely much easier for vast sums of Bitcoin to accidentally poof off into a crypotgraphic pocket universe where nobody can reach it anymore.
One thing I can be fairly confident won't happen is that BTC will become a medium of exchange. This is because BTC mechanically behaves more like a commodity than a currency, which means that (for various, immutable technical reasons) it's not able to match the speed of settlement, the price stability and the reliability of supply that are required for a good medium of exchange.
And I agree. I too doubt BTC will become the medium of exchange it was originally envisaged to be.
As to whether it will retain our confidence as a store of value remains to be seen.
I will continue to follow the heated discussion on HN with much interest. It's great to be able to read the consolidated thoughts of individuals who clearly understand this technology far better than I do.
A money supply that grows more slowly than the economy that rests on top of it just might be the stuff that Malthusian dreams are made of.
I also wouldn't call this new fiat regime with rising property prices and stagnant wages as a "net win" over Bretton-Woods, the gold standard was probably the only thing keeping the federal spending under control, and real wage growth up.
My understanding is that one reason more plants were built in the 60s was because electricity prices were fixed by regulators. That made financial modeling easier, because investors could legibly forecast their payback on the capital investment. When electricity moved to free floating price markets, it introduced much more risk and therefore increased the cost of capital.
Seems like nuclear power and bitcoin mining are a match made in heaven. Demand remains smooth and predictable, even from minute to minute. The marginal cost of electricity is near zero. Many of the large mining pools are so large and well capitalized that they could afford to commission a dedicated plant.
Yep. And I suspect there isn't any power cheaper than the output of an over provisioned wind or solar farm on a windy or sunny day. And they all will be over provisioned. In fact they all assume a faction of nameplate output now.
Switching to any one of them is likely to provide more revenue than just attacking the network for a little extra transaction fee money.
This is one of those times it's really useful to make a distinction between bitcoin the currency and bitcoin the protocol. If it was the authors intention to describe a future problem on the BTC network then they messed up by not addressing the rest of the sha256 mining ecosystem. However, if it was their intention to describe a problem with the protocol itself then it kind of makes sense to not touch on miner's alternatives.
Besides, I doubt miners are keeping going during triad periods.
And once you get priced out, you are operating at a loss. Then you turn the miners off, sell ‘em to the next person willing to gamble vs. doing their homework.
Re read that first paragraph real closely. I personally used to have a blog teaching people how to mine bitcoin on Ubuntu 10.04... until I didn’t anymore.
Now, whether anyone likes it or not: Bitcoin has both value and utility until at least 2040, block rewards incentivize mining for 20 more years (19, whoops) if we read the white paper.
Two thousand and forty. Every 10 mins, new block. Chain, new block. Huge billion dollar economy of SHA256 miners custom built for proof of work. That money to pay for all of that is coming from somewhere. Mark my words, proof of work doesn’t crash overnight. It wasn’t built built in a day either.
AFTER that, there’s 100 years of “will bitcoin live” because of minimal to NO block rewards.
These papers are so old and the subject matter is still misunderstood, it’s nice to see people learning and stuff but HN gah, just omagersh
You have to account for the depreciation of the battery.
the core code does not choose the older block in a tie, the code chooses the block with the largest legitimate chainwork (under current TARGET epoch)
Second note: this paper investigates the era in the future when there are no mining rewards, only transaction fees. How far away is that ? How valuable is one satoshi now? Much of what is said is relative to that far-away case
(reading through the paper) This is an interesting (and thorough) thought experiment for what behavior might emerge when only transaction fees are the reward for mining. However the case the paper makes for a serious security problem gets weaker, as the argument depends on a growing number of assumptions as the paper goes on..
I fail to understand why a PETTY-COMPLIANT miner would ever realistically take a set of Tx that does not short-term maximize profit, given the competition for new blocks goes WAY up as the value increases. In other words, the undercutting and LAZY-FORK behavior would be crowded out right away, as it is insufficiently popular.
In the AGGRESSIVE-UNDERCUTTING discussion, it assumes a lot of "forks" or alternate chain tips, to chose from, is this true in practice? Are there really that many chain tips to chose from, to make this practice even a consideration?
I see in page 10 that there is a more refined and detailed descriptions on miner strategy. From a math perspective this is interesting, but the comments above stand.. would anyone even have a chance to move ONE BLOCK using these considerations, given the value and competition for every single block?
Really? Those contracts don't let them resell the unused electricity at (some fraction of) the spot price?