That said, the "conjunction fallacy" mentioned in the article, it seems to be one of the biases that casts quite a powerful spell. I first came across it six years ago, and got it wrong. I recently tried the famous "Linda Problem" from Kahneman & Tversky on a few friends — some of them are working scientists — and almost all of them went with the incorrect answer, and they're in good company for that.
The Linda Problem being:
[/quote]
Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in antinuclear demonstrations.
Now, which alternative is more probable?
(a) Linda is a banker.
(b) Linda is a banker and is active in the feminist movement.
[/quote]
This is one of the neatest examples that demonstrate how much we run on autopilot.