Randomness is definitely a factor, there are so many things that can go wrong, from having a bad day, an interviewer having a bad day, just bad luck on the set of questions you are asked, the list goes on.
I have performed a lot of coding interviews (probably 400+), I'm painfully aware of how limited the signal is that I can reliably read from 45 minutes with a candidate
I deliberately ask a question that has no algorithmic or data structure component to it (and tell candidates that) it's just a simple problem solving coding question which allows some insight into general coding and engineering chops
I still see experienced engineers struggle. It is hard to pinpoint exactly why, but lack of preparation/practice definitely seems to be a problem
Covid appears (at least for me) to have killed off the whiteboard