Your analysis is dead on. I forget the movie but I remember seeing that it was 'out on DVD.' I decided I wanted to watch said movie so I checked NF (streaming or disc) and it didn't have it. I checked Comcast OnDemand, not there either. So I checked xbox live and even itunes and it was not available. At this point the only way to watch the movie as to either buy it (rofl never) or pirate it.
In the end I just skipped the movie because it really wasn't that important, but look at the effort I went through to try and hand over my money. Number one rule of business is to make it frictionless for your customers to give you money. Movie studios do the exact opposite and then wonder why movies are pirated.