If there’s no data available about 256GB models, then there’s no way to assess whether their speculations are valid. I look forward to more data.

My 1TB NVMe drive in my Intel mac desktop is at 1% after 18 months, and shows some 46TB of writes by their data collection method. At least 600GB of the data is music albums that haven’t changed since I first copied it over, and I’m mildly curious whether it’s truly writing 32GB/day for 18 months (since I never run out of RAM and I don’t do large I/O activities).

But they’re all focused on M1 so I’m staying out of it and letting them do so.