How many years left until 100 vaccination doses per 100 people? | Hacker News Reader

How many years left until 100 vaccination doses per 100 people?

howmanyleft.info

33 pointshdante11 comments

New Zealand is at the bottom of the non-infinite list at 1849 years 7 months, but also has few cases.

Japan 962 years 8 months

Yeah! We’ll get there.

It would be interesting to see this calculation using the second derivative rather than the first.

Vaccination rate (vaccines given per day) continues to increase in the data I've seen so it does not make sense to extrapolate using only the rate from the last 2 weeks.

It’s not always true, in uk it actually declined a lot in the last week compared to the two previous weeks.

I suspect that's because there was a deadline to get the most vulnerable groups done by mid February. I expect something similar will happen after we pass the next deadline.

The title wording seems a bit weird, but I suspect it's because most vaccines need 2 doses

So 100 doses per 100 people may mean 100% of people with the first dose, or some combination of people with 0, 1 or 2 doses

It does not include people who got vaccinated natural way: being infected with real virus!

Even people previously infected are being offered the vaccine, but there are currently studies as to whether those previously infected may only need 1 dose so that the second dose may be used on someone else.

Really we need 200 Vaccination doses per 100 people.

And long term, maybe more than that.

Herd immunity kicks in somewhere less than 100% vaccinated (should start seeing some numbers coming out of Israel in the next few months). A sizeable percentage of the population has had Covid already and therefore has some level of natural immunity (not full, but better than nothing). Furthermore, kids have been shown to spread it less (and we're not vaccinating them currently, reducing the population 20-25%). So all that said, 100/100 is a pretty good short-term target. Yeah - we can and should do better in the long term, but ~100 should get us into a sustained decline (but not eradication - to your point about requiring more long term).

> Herd immunity kicks in somewhere less than 100% vaccinated

Yes, but 1 adult "100% vaccinated" takes 2 doses of any of the current vaccines.

if 75% of the population of a country are "adults who can be vaccinated", and the rest are e.g. under 16, or the few adults will have medical issues that prevent vaccination; then you're shooting for 1.5 vaccines per person, i.e. 150%.

And the longer term goal is also to vaccinate children as young as 6. Trials are already underway: https://www.nihr.ac.uk/news/first-childrens-covid-19-vaccine...

And this might actually be necessary for full Herd immunity (if it starts at 80% or 85% fully vaccinated).

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